Keir Starmer is facing three days of political hell that could mark the beginning of the end of his time in Downing Street.
Polls opened this morning for elections to English councils and the Scottish and Welsh devolved assemblies in which Labour is on course for a major drubbing at the hands of disaffected voters.
Sir Keir yesterday vowed to go into polling day ‘fighting for every vote’ but acknowledged his party could be in for a ‘challenge’.
It is expected to lose up to 1,800 council seats and be only the third-largest party in Scotland and Wales, two former heartlands.
By Saturday evening the counting should be done and we will know if the full results mirror this expectation.
But most results will be in by the end of tomorrow, kicking off a weekend of political jostling, briefing and clamouring.
If results are as bad as forecast, it could be the the spark that triggers a putsch against Sir Keir from within Labour ranks.
Three party big hitters are said to be poised to try to take his place; his former deputy Angela Rayner, Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester.
Various councils and assemblies are counting at different times and speeds, so there will be a steady drip of results, with the first crunch point for the PM coming in the early hours of tomorrow morning and continuing through the day.
Here is how the next few days are set to pan out.
Sir Keir vowed to ‘fight for every vote’ but acknowledged Labour could be in for a ‘challenge’
Three party big hitters are said to be poised to try to take his place; his former deputy Angela Rayner, Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester.
THURSDAY
10pm
Polling stations close.
Almost 25,000 candidates are fighting to be elected to more than 5,000 seats on 136 councils across England.
Labour is defending around half of those wards, with Reform and the Greens likely to rack up big gains.
In Scotland, all 129 seats are up for election in Holyrood, while voters in Wales will choose a set of 96 members of the Senedd.
Of the local authorities in England holding elections, 46 are due to count and declare results overnight.
The majority of authorities will count and declare later on Friday, while a handful are scheduled to finish on Saturday.
All results in Scotland and Wales will be counted and declared later on Friday.
FRIDAY
1am
The first potential small sign that Labour may be in for a bad night.
Most of the local authorities counting overnight have only a third or half of their seats up for grabs, which means those councils where a party currently has a large majority – such as Broxbourne (Conservative) and Halton (Labour), both of which are due to declare around this time – are unlikely to see a change in overall control.
But councils where a party is defending only a slim majority, for example Harlow (Conservative) and Redditch (Labour), which are also due to finish counting at this time, may slip into no overall control if other parties make gains. Eyes will be on the scale of the losses.
2am
Labour is defending majorities in Hartlepool and Lincoln, both of which are due to declare around now.
The former is an area that has been tied to Starmer’s fortunes since he became leader in 2020, with the loss of its Commons seat to the Tories in 2021 nearly causing him to quit. But it won back the seat and the council in 2024.
Wigan is the first Metropolitan borough council due to finish counting, where only a third of seats are up for election.
Labour has a large enough majority here to retain control even if the party loses every one of the seats it is defending, but again heavy losses will point to serious local disaffection.
3am
Salford, another big Metropolitan council in Greater Manchester, should finish counting around this time. But like nearby Wigan, only a third of seats are up for grabs and Labour’s majority is large enough for the party to keep control even if it suffers heavy losses.
Both will provide early clues as to whether Reform and the Greens are managing to pick up Labour seats in north west England in the wake of the Gorton and Denton by-election, where they both finished ahead of Labour.
Salford and Wigan will provide early clues as to whether Reform and the Greens are managing to pick up Labour seats in north west England in the wake of the Gorton and Denton by-election, where they both finished ahead of Labour
Less safe for Labour is Tameside, a council where it has been the largest party since 1979, but where its slim majority could disappear in the face of a Reform surge
Less safe for Labour is Tameside, a council where it has been the largest party since 1979, but where its slim majority could disappear in the face of a Reform surge.
Labour might also struggle to hold on to overall control of Exeter and Reading.
Around 3.30am, Westminster is due to be the first London council to finish counting – and the first council of the night where every seat is up for grabs.
Westminster was run by the Conservatives continuously from the borough council’s creation in 1964 through to 2022, when Labour won control with a tiny majority.
The outcome here will not only be the first indication of how Labour is faring in the capital, but also if the Tories have managed to recover support in one of their former London strongholds – or whether gains by smaller parties leave the council in no overall control.
4am
Hampshire is the first county council due to complete its declarations, where the Conservatives have been the majority party since 1997.
In London, a full set of results is due from Ealing (Labour), Sutton (Lib Dems) and Wandsworth (Labour), with Wandsworth most likely to see seats changing hands and any evidence of a rise in support for the Greens.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said the party hoped to make gains in areas like Wandsworth, which was once a Tory flagship council famed for its low tax.
‘I would love to see Wandsworth go blue again,’ she said.
Tory peer and polling expert Lord Hayward has forecast the Conservatives will lose 600 seats when votes are counted.
Every seat is up for election in Newcastle under Lyme and all the results should be in now, revealing whether the Tories have managed to keep their overall majority.
5am
Among the authorities counting overnight still left to declare are six London councils: Bexley, Hammersmith & Fulham, Havering, Kensington & Chelsea, Merton, and Richmond upon Thames.
Bexley is Reform’s top target in the capital and the party may also do well in Havering, while the Lib Dems have gained ground in Merton in recent years and – together with other parties – may take enough seats from Labour this time to leave the council in no overall control.
9am
Counting gets under way for the parliamentary elections in Scotland and Wales, for 86 local authorities in England, and for the six mayoral contests.
Polls suggest the SNP will retain control in Scotland but that Reform is set to become the largest opposition party, having won no seats in the previous Holyrood election in 2021.
In Wales, Reform and Plaid are neck-and-neck to form the next Senedd administration, which has been led by Labour since devolution 27 years ago.
The Welsh Labour leader Baroness Eluned Morgan told The Telegraph Sir Keir’s unpopularity could cost it power in Cardiff Bay, and would only support him as Labour leader at ‘this point in time’.
‘I do hope people will reflect on what this election is really about – and it isn’t a time, I think, to pick a fight with Starmer. There’s a general election, that’s the time to do that,’ she said.
1pm
The first constituency results from Scotland are likely to be announced around this time, with Airdrie, Ayr and Coatbridge & Chryston potentially among them.
In England the first mayoral result is due, from Hackney in east London. Labour has held the position of mayor here since the role was established in 2002, but is facing a tough fight with the Greens, who have a built up a strong local following and who consider this to be one of their top targets.
The result for the Newham mayoral contest should also be declared around this time, which is another Labour defence.
Among the first councils to finish declaring results should be Manchester, where a third of seats are up for election but where Labour’s majority is so huge it will remain in overall control even if it sustains heavy losses.
2pm
Results due to be completed in England around this time include Hyndburn, Preston, Rochdale and St Helens, all of which currently have a Labour majority but where it would only take a few seat changes to leave Preston and St Helens with no party in overall control.
3pm
Results from Scottish constituencies should be coming in fast by now, though it will be some time before the overall state of the parties in the Parliament will become clear, as most of these individual seats are likely to be won by the SNP.
The other parties have better chances of picking up seats in one of the eight electoral regions in Scotland, each of which sends an additional seven members to the Parliament based on a form of proportional voting, and where results are not expected until later in the day.
The first declarations from Wales are due around this time, where a new system of voting has been adopted that has seen the country divided into 16 super-constituencies, each of which sends six members to the Senedd, allocated proportionally according to the number of votes cast.
The constituencies of Casnewydd Islwyn in south-east Wales, covering parts of Caerphilly and Newport, and Gwyr Abertawe in south-west Wales, which includes areas of Swansea, could be among the first to finish counting.
In London, the first of Friday’s results should be complete, with Labour defending huge majorities at Islington and Waltham Forest in the face of challenges from the Greens and independents in the former and Reform in the latter.
Labour has smaller majorities to defend elsewhere in England at Knowsley and Leeds, though only a third of seats are up for grabs at both councils, and Labour has held Knowsley continuously since 1973.
By contrast, all seats are up at Solihull, where it is the Conservatives who are defending a tiny majority.
The mayoral result from Lewisham is due around this time – a role Labour has held continuously since the post was created in 2002, but which is another target for the Greens.
4pm
Results will pick up pace, with around 40 councils in England due to finishing counting in the next couple of hours.
Labour has enjoyed a majority at Sunderland continuously since the council was established in its current form in 1973, but that could come to an end if Reform manage to pile up wins in one of their top targets outside London.
Full results are also due from Barnsley and Gateshead, two more Labour strongholds since 1973 where every seat is up for grabs, along with other Labour-majority councils at Bury, Crawley, Greenwich, Ipswich, Trafford and Wolverhampton.
The Conservatives will learn if they have held their majorities in the county councils of Suffolk and West Sussex, while the mayoral result from Croydon is due, which is another Tory defence.
5pm
A string of London councils currently held by Labour are due to finish counting, including Barnet, where the Tories are hoping to regain control; Hackney, a top target for the Greens; and Redbridge, where Reform and independents are eyeing gains.
A major poll released today by More in Common suggests Zack Polanski’s party could take charge of Hackney, with a 3 percentage point lead.
It would be the first time the Greens have received the highest vote share in a London borough – although the party is also within touching distance in Islington, Lambeth and Lewisham.
If the Greens win they are pledging to impose a ban on ads for meat and dairy and help facilitate pro-Palestine protests.
The party’s manifesto in Hackney also promises to ‘de-twin’ from the Israeli city of Haifa and help illegal immigrants access council services.
The extraordinary platform could start being implemented within days, as Labour stares down the barrel of defeat.
Labour will also learn if it has managed to keep its majority at Coventry, Milton Keynes, Sandwell and Sefton, all of which have a full set of seats up for election.
Two county councils should have a complete set of results by now, both of which are currently run by the Tories and where Reform is the main challenger: Essex and Norfolk.
In Scotland, the first members elected under the regional vote system should be announced by now, which is where smaller parties – particularly the Greens and Reform – are hoping to have some success.
6pm
The mayoral result for the London borough of Tower Hamlets is due, where Lutfur Rahman of the Aspire party is seeking another term.
He was removed from the post and banned from running for five years in 2015 after being found guilty of electoral fraud, but subsequently won re-election.
Two brand new local authorities should finish their declarations, East Surrey and West Surrey, which will operate as ‘shadow’ councils until formally replacing Surrey county council in 2027.
Further declarations from London could bring more mixed news for Labour in the boroughs of Newham and Lambeth, while results for all 101 seats in Birmingham should be complete: the largest council in England and one that looks likely to pass from a Labour majority to no party in overall control.
The party has been hammered locally over a year-long dispute with refuse collectors that left the city’s streets covered in filth and vermin.
7pm
The last results of the day from England will include Bromley in London, where the ruling Conservatives will hope to hold on to their majority in the face of a challenge from Reform, and Calderdale in West Yorkshire, where Labour is defending a very slim majority.
All the results from Scotland and Wales are scheduled to be announced by Friday evening, though it may be late in the night before counting is complete.
SATURDAY
9am
Counting continues at four councils due to finish declaring today: Bradford, Croydon, Lewisham and Tower Hamlets.
4pm
A full set of results should be in for Bradford, Croydon and Lewisham.
Labour is defending a wafer-thin majority in Bradford and faces challenges on several fronts, including Reform, the Greens and independents, while in Lewisham the party has a huge majority but the Greens are hoping to make gains in another of their top London targets.
Croydon will be a close battle and the council could remain hung with no party having overall control.
6pm
Tower Hamlets will be the last council to finish declaring results, where the Aspire party is hoping to repeat its success at the last election in 2022 and secure a majority of seats.
