The Conservatives and Reform must now form a pact to ‘unite the Right’ ahead of the next election to prevent a hard-Left government, a senior Tory has warned.
Analysis shows that if the local election results were transferred to a general election, Reform UK would fall well short of an overall majority in the Commons.
A projection by polling firm Rallings & Thrasher suggested Nigel Farage would win around 284 seats based on yesterday’s vote shares, shy of the 326 required to govern alone.
The Tories would lose 25 seats, far fewer than previously forecast, and could form a comfortable majority of 77 in a coalition with Reform.
Rallings & Thrasher said Labour would collapse to just 110 MPs, but mathematically Sir Keir Starmer could cling on with the support of the Liberal Democrats, SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Green Party.
Tory grandee Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg said: ‘What this shows is the need to reunite the Right.
‘Reform are doing extremely well in places that voted Leave. The Conservatives are showing they can still do well in less Brexity areas. If you combine the two you have an unstoppable force.
‘The alternative is that you have a general election where Reform are in the mid-20s, the Conservatives are in the low-20s and you end up with a governing coalition of the Left.’
Reform and the Tories must work together to defeat a hard-Left Labour-Green-SNP coalition, it was warned yesterday
Top Tory Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg issued fresh calls for the Tories and Reform to finally come together
Read More
UK 2026 local election results in full: Live-updating maps and charts
His call came as the Tories finally showed signs of a comeback after years of being hammered at the ballot box.
While they lost hundreds of seats, Kemi Badenoch took pollsters by surprise by winning two crucial battleground councils in London.
The Tories bucked the trend in Wandsworth and Westminster, taking them back from Labour who won them in 2022.
In Westminster, which includes major areas such as Buckingham Palace, the West End, and Belgravia, the Tories won 32 seats to Labour’s 22.
South of the river in Wandsworth, once known as ‘Thatcher’s favourite council’ for its notorious track record of very low council tax, the Tories also succeeded in taking the crown back from Labour.
While Keir Starmer is on course to be wiped out at the election, figures suggested he could still cling on as PM by relying on hard-Left parties like the Greens
A Rallings & Thrasher analysis for Sky News found Reform would fall well short of a majority
Ms Badenoch also fended off a major effort from Reform UK in Bexley, south east London, comfortably holding the council despite recent polls suggesting it was neck-and-neck.
In Harlow, the Tories were defending six of the 11 seats up for election.
The Tory leader of the council, Dan Swords, said: ‘Reform said they would win all 11.’
‘The Conservatives won all 11 – with record turnout and majorities. Phenomenal.’
Despite losing around 500 seats, Tory MPs from across the party suggested that Ms Badenoch is now seen as an asset, and her position as leader is no longer in any doubt.
A Scottish MP argued: ‘I think the Kemi project has to continue, she’s obviously an asset.
‘We just have to work out what it is that’s causing the drag between us [the party] and her.’
A shadow cabinet minister in Essex added that the animosity towards the Tories on the doorstep has largely ‘gone away’.
They said: ‘There’s definitely a Kemi pick-up, she’s definitely now a positive.’
A third shadow front bencher told the Mail that despite the party losing control of his own council, ‘There’s no way she’s going anywhere. She’s there for the long-haul and I think we’re the most united we’ve been in five or six years.’
‘We’ve got a hell of a lot of a job to do. But one of the things that astounded me on the doorstep is that the brand is not popular, but she is cutting through in a way I’ve not seen since my days campaigning for David Cameron.’
