The Conservatives would win just 14 seats if a General Election were called today, a poll leaked from the party headquarters has revealed.
New research suggests the Tories would be decimated by the public vote in what one insider described as an ‘existential threat’.
The findings also predict Reform UK would secure a 46-seat majority, according to The Telegraph.
A conservative HQ source said the results showed there was a danger the party could be ‘consigned to the history books’.
It comes amid criticism of Kemi Badenoch’s party leadership, with opponents saying she moved too slowly on developing policy in early months and gave Nigel Farage room to ‘fill the political vacuum’.
The polling was carried out by Stack Data Strategy, predicting the Conservatives would hold onto just a 17 per cent share of the vote: three seats in the north of England and Scotland combined, one in the Midlands and a few in the Home Counties – traditional Tory heartland.
The party would also gain just four seats in London and none in the rest of the country.
Reform is put at 348 seats in the poll, Labour at 161, the Lib Dems at 63, and other parties at 46.
The findings are said to have caused alarm among insiders after circulating within the Conservative Research Department in the Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ).
A Tory source said: ‘This is absolutely an existential threat. It goes to show the level of work that needs doing, and I don’t think the leadership has always grasped to survive. This is a clear wake-up call.’
The insider went on to express uncertainty over Ms Badenoch’s performance, saying ‘I don’t think she’s a bad person’ but the ‘task is beyond her’.
Another insider claimed the party’s direction of travel is ‘just terrible’ and it is ‘heading for an extinction event’.
It comes as Mr Farage has been privately calling Ms Badenoch ‘Santa Claus’ behind her back, telling Reformer staffers ‘every day is like Christmas’ for his party while she is in charge.
Constituency-by constituency analysis has shown Ms Badenoch would be the only member of the current front bench to survive, alongside Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp, in the event of a general election.
Amid Ms Badenoch’s controversial leadership, Prime Minister Keir Starmer also faces his own threat of an ousting at next week’s Budget which is expected to broken manifesto pledges and more taxes.
Last month a stunning poll showed Labour and the Tories were both less popular than the Greens.
The Find Out Now survey showed Britain’s two historically main parties were tied on 16 per cent support, while the Greens were backed by 17 per cent of voters.
Meanwhile, Reform UK maintained its large polling lead on 32 per cent support as Britons have continued to look beyond traditional political allegiances.
According to the research, the Greens enjoyed a five percentage point boost in their support since the beginning of October.
Zack Polanski, a self-described ‘eco-populist’, was elected as the party’s new leader in early September, since overseeing a Greens membership surge.
Across the course of October, both Labour and Reform dropped three percentage points in Find Out Now polling, while the Tories rose two points.
Liberal Democrats remained steady on 12 per cent support throughout the month.
The surge in support for the Greens was yet another blow for Sir Keir, with Labour now facing a Left-wing challenge alongside strong backing for Reform.
Today’s new Stack analysis is understood to be based on a statistical modelling method called multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP). The technique uses a large poll and other sources of information to draw conclusions about voter intentions.
The Conservatives have denied tasking the Stack Data Strategy with the research despite multiple sources saying it had been commissioned by the party.
A spokesman for Stack said: ‘Our expert team regularly run major polls and models so that we have the latest data on UK and US politics. This analysis, which is from the summer, was paid for by Stack Data and was not commissioned or funded by any other entity or political party.’
Meanwhile allies of Ms Badenoch insisted she had shown the ‘backbone, teak and plan to take the Conservative Party back to Downing Street’.
