Aston Villa’s 4-0 comeback victory over Nottingham Forest to reach the UEFA Europa League final is great news for a number of Premier League clubs – and even for Jose Mourinho’s Benfica.
Villa currently sit fifth in the Premier League and if they are to finish in that position and win the Europa League, sixth place in the division will also earn Champions League qualification for next season.
Bournemouth currently lie in sixth, but both Brentford and Brighton are within two points of the Cherries. For all three teams, qualification would mark their first-ever appearances in Europe’s top-level competition.
The situation also provides hope for Chelsea, who despite six consecutive league defeats are four points off sixth alongside Everton and another potential Champions League debutant in Fulham. So, the Villans can expect great home support when they face Freiburg in Istanbul.
The situation becomes complex based on whether Villa’s league position changes. If Villa move up into fourth, where Liverpool are currently placed, only the top five teams in the Premier League will qualify for the Champions League.
So what is the state of play regarding European qualification?
Aston Villa’s progression to the Europa League final has opened up the race for Champions League football next season
Who qualifies for Europe as it stands?
As a reward for English clubs’ collective progress in European competitions this season, the Premier League has been awarded a European Performance Spot (EPS) in the UEFA Champions League. This means an extra team will qualify for Europe’s elite club competition based on league position.
So currently, the top five teams in the Premier League go into the Champions League, with two qualifying places for the Europa League (sixth place in the league and the FA Cup winners) and one Conference League qualifier (Carabao Cup Winners).
Manchester City have already secured a spot in the Champions League, so their Conference League place for winning the Carabao Cup over Arsenal in March is passed on to the next highest finisher in the Premier League who hasn’t already qualified for Europe. This means that seventh place qualifies for the Conference League.
Where things get complicated is the implications regarding the FA Cup. Chelsea and Manchester City play the final next Sunday and the winner earns qualification to the Europa League.
Chelsea currently sit ninth. If they win the FA Cup and remain outside the top seven, they will qualify for the Europa League.
If they finish sixth, the Europa League spot for Premier League position would go to seventh, and the Conference League spot would go to eighth place.
If Manchester City win the FA Cup, since they have already qualified for the Champions League, the Europa League spot would be passed to seventh and the Conference League spot down to eighth.
If Villa lose the Europa League final, these permutations remain as they are.
The team that finishes sixth could qualify should Villa win the European competition and finish fifth in the Premier League
Chelsea can still qualify for European football but a lot depends on the FA Cup final
BUT what if Villa win the Europa League?
The winner of the Europa League final earns automatic qualification to the Champions League.
This means if Aston Villa win the Europa League but fail to finish in the top five, they would qualify for the Champions League regardless of league position.
If Villa remain in the top five and win the Europa League, their exact league position will have a great impact on who qualifies for the Champions League.
If Villa finish fifth, the EPS would be passed on to sixth place, allowing either Bournemouth, Brentford or Brighton to make their Champions League debut. The Cherries are currently the favourites to finish sixth as they already have a one-point buffer over Brentford in seventh.
The Premier League would then forfeit its Europa League spot for league position and seventh would qualify for the Conference League. The knock-on effect from the FA Cup would, however still apply.
If Villa finish third or fourth, the EPS would not be passed down and instead, the top five in the Premier League would go into the Champions League. Sixth position would earn a Europa League spot and seventh would get their hands on a Conference League place – before any knock-on effect from the FA Cup.
In this scenario, the EPS would fall to the individual club with the best UEFA coefficient ranking from the Champions League’s qualifying rounds. As it stands, Jose Mourinho’s Benfica, who are currently second in the league behind Porto, are the highest-ranked club in UEFA’s coefficient table in terms of eligibility, placed in 14th ahead of rivals Sporting in 15th.
Benfica fans will therefore be cheering on Aston Villa in both the Europa League final and the Premier League run-in, as their form is crucial to their hopes of qualifying for Europe’s elite competition next term.
Jose Mourinho’s Benfica will be cheering on Aston Villa in the Europa League final on May 20
Where Villa finish is likely to be determined on Friday May 15 when they take on Liverpool at home. The pair currently sit level on points, so three points for either side will likely decide the final league standings.
With the Europa League final taking place only five days later on Wednesday May 20, Villa will likely rest key players before travelling to Istanbul to face Freiburg, as they did in the Premier League against Tottenham ahead of their second leg clash with Forest.
