Last week, a survey of dentists found that Kemi Badenoch’s smile is the nicest in British politics.
On the face of it, the Tory leader does not have too much to smile about at the start of a week when forecasters expect the restive electorate to boot out 600 Conservative councillors across England and push the party even further from power in Scotland and Wales.
But Mrs Badenoch believes the Tories are on the up, albeit with a ‘long road’ ahead to restore trust with the public.
And she cannot resist a broad grin when asked about the impact of high-profile defections to Reform, such as Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman, which were billed as hugely damaging, but which she believes have produced a more united party.
‘I mean, it was all I could do not to crack open the champagne,’ she laughs.
‘Having to just be, you know, very formal about it, so people didn’t think that we were celebrating!’
The opinion polls, which put Reform well ahead of the Tories, suggest that some sort of accommodation between the two parties of the Right will be needed if either are going to form a stable government and keep out a rag-bag coalition of Greens, socialists and nationalists on the Left.
Mrs Badenoch acknowledges that Britain is in a ‘multi-party era’ that is likely to produce grim results for both the traditional main parties on Thursday.
Kemi Badenoch believes Tories are now on the up, despite predictions 600 Conservative councillors will lose their seat in the local elections
But, for now at least, she is dismissive of any idea of a deal with Reform. ‘These were the people who were causing problems in my party,’ she says.
‘They’ve now gone. Why would I then go and invite the problems back in? You can’t do that.’
Personal relations with Nigel Farage also remain on the frosty side.
In a recent interview with this newspaper, Mr Farage revealed that former Tory treasurer Lord Ashcroft had mischievously placed the two leaders on the same table at a party to mark his 80th birthday.
Mr Farage said he had enjoyed a good conversation with Mrs Badenoch’s ‘charming’ husband Hamish, but intimated he had found her rather hard work. It’s fair to say that recollections may vary.
She acknowledges the seating plan was ‘quite funny’, but adds: ‘I had a good time. Nigel didn’t seem like he was having a good time. I was having a great time.
‘I was dancing, because at the end of the day, you’ve still got to find the joy in the job and the joy in life, no matter what the circumstances are. And I am one of life’s happy people.’
Happy but tough, she is keen to emphasise. For whatever happens in this week’s polls, Mrs Badenoch is beginning to sketch out an argument she hopes will return the Tories to power at the next election.
Robert Jenrick’s defection to Reform in January was a blessing in disguise for the Tories, says Mrs Badenoch with a broad grin. She dismissed the idea of a deal with Farage’s party
Suella Braverman also defected in January but Mrs Badenoch says their exits meant more unity within the Conservative party and could do nothing but ‘crack open the champagne’
And the approach involves bringing a much harder edge to politics than either main party has pursued in recent years.
The public, she says, are ‘crying out’ for a government that will clamp down on those who try to take advantage of the generosity of ordinary people, whether it be through low-level crime, bogus asylum claims or choosing a life on benefits.
She argues there has been a ‘collapse in consequences’ for wrongdoing, leading to a dangerous rupture in the fabric of society. She points to the epidemic of shoplifting, fare-dodging and phone thefts, but also to the soaring welfare bill and the lax asylum system.
‘It’s what happens when we stop being tough,’ she says. ‘If you’re going to be kind, you need to be tough as well. Instead, we do the kindness without the toughness.
‘So we give the welfare, but we don’t force the people who can work to work. We help people who claim asylum, and then when they’re cheating the system, we don’t do anything about it.
‘They hurt people, they don’t go to prison, they don’t get deported. They pretend to be gay, or they pretend that they’ve converted to Christianity, and then they bring their children and their wives over, or they start going to the mosque again. And nothing happens. We need to bring back consequences.’
Mrs Badenoch says she is a ‘subscriber’ to the ‘broken windows’ approach to crime pioneered in New York decades ago.
‘If people get away with little things, they will graduate to bigger crimes,’ she says. To this end, the Tories have pledged to fund another 10,000 police officers. And Mrs Badenoch has clear views about what they should be doing as part of a ‘take back the streets’ campaign.
‘We don’t want them doing non-crime hate incidents and all of that stuff,’ she says.
‘Immediate justice. If people are smoking drugs openly, they need to be dealt with very quickly, taken to court. If they’re spraying graffiti, they need to clean it up themselves.’
The latter is said with feeling after she took the Shadow Cabinet on a campaign visit to clean up graffiti on an estate in London’s Herne Hill.
‘It took us ages,’ she says. ‘The media had left and we were still cleaning. That wall is clean now, but people need to understand how much it costs and what it takes.’
Mrs Badenoch is dismissive of the idea that she is being out-toughed by Reform, saying they are ‘all noise, all swagger’, with a set of policies that will ‘set the country on fire’. The more populist parties, she says, are ‘pandering’ to the ‘fragmentation’ in society at a time when divisions need healing.
Conservatives will be more hardline than the main parties have been in years, Mrs Badenoch said, clamping down on asylum, low level crime and benefits
‘If people get away with little things, they will graduate to bigger crimes,’ Mrs Badenoch said, saying her party would clamp down on crimes like phone theft
She cites as an example Mr Farage’s new plan to place immigration detention centres in constituencies that vote Green.
‘That is how you break the country up,’ she says. ‘We are the party that wants to bring people back together.
‘That [policy] is not a serious thing. I mean, there’ll be people in those constituencies who didn’t vote Green. Why are you punishing them?’
Nevertheless, Reform are on course to inflict serious damage on the Tories in Thursday’s elections.
Mrs Badenoch was yesterday again campaigning in Essex – once a Tory stronghold, where she and half the Shadow Cabinet have their constituencies – but now under threat from Reform’s teal tide.
Polls suggest that she is more popular – or at least less unpopular – than rival party leaders, including Sir Keir, Mr Farage and Zack Polanski. But a major improvement in the Tory poll rating has yet to follow.
There is, she acknowledges ‘a hell of a lot to do’ to win back public trust following the landslide defeat in 2024.
‘You’ve got to sort one thing out at a time, and the more I sort, the more people can see,’ she says. ‘It’s getting better.’
With the average age of Tory voters topping 60 at the last election, Mrs Badenoch is working on attracting back more younger voters, including scrapping stamp duty and a big focus on youth unemployment, which is, shockingly, now higher than in the EU.
Funding for so-called Mickey Mouse degrees will be cut, with a new emphasis on high-quality apprenticeships.
‘We want to get them off those terrible degrees that are actually giving them debt, but no prospects,’ she says.
While the Tories will haemorrhage hundreds of seats on Thursday, they can perhaps take a crumb of comfort from the fact that, after losing two-thirds of the seats they were defending last year, they may save more than half this week.
Labour, meanwhile, look set to lose three-quarters of their own in a bloodbath that could topple the PM.
Mrs Badenoch is clear that Labour have the right to change leader between elections – but also warns it will not work.
‘If you don’t have a mandate, you have a very tough time,’ she says. ‘And whoever comes in is going to be coming in two years in, with no mandate.
‘They can’t fix it – it’s already too late. It doesn’t matter whether it’s Keir Starmer or (Angela) Rayner or (Ed) Miliband, they’re all as bad as each other.
‘These people did not have a plan. They just thought that as long as they weren’t Tories, everything would be fine.
‘This is Nigel Farage’s strategy as well. But it’s not a political strategy. You need to have a plan for the country.’
The Tories, she says, are working on a plan to ‘show we are competent again’.
‘People have had enough. We did some things wrong. We’ve acknowledged and apologised, whether on immigration, whether on tax, Net Zero, which I never wanted anyway, people know I’ve changed all that policy.
‘We get it, and we are coming to the rescue.
‘Hope is coming’ she says finally. ‘We want people to hang in there. We’ve got Labour for, max, three more years. Then they’re going to be out.
‘Hope is coming with the Conservatives.’
