Who will win The Traitors? Mathematician predicts tonight’s winner,
It’s the question that millions of Britons are desperate to know the answer to.
Who will win the final of The Traitors tonight?
Many viewers are rooting for Rachel and Stephen – the two remaining Traitors – who have largely managed to stay under the radar up until this point.
However, others are convinced that the Faithfuls (James, Jade, Jack and Faraaz) have what it takes to rat them out and take home the prize.
Now, Dr Sam Brzezicki, a mathematician at Imperial College London, has used game theory to predict the likely champion.
And according to his analysis, it’s not looking good for the Traitors.
‘My prediction is that Jack and Faraaz are going to figure it out,’ he explained.
‘They’re smart guys. But let’s see what happens.’
Dr Brzezicki’s analysis is based on game theory – a branch of mathematics often used for elections and business negotiations.
Game theory relies on spotting irrational play, which indicates players are more likely to leave.
Due to the suspicions on them throughout the series, Dr Brzezicki suggests that Rachel, James and Jade are ‘very likely to all go’.
That will leave Stephen, Jack, and Faraaz as the final three.
However, Stephen has a history of irrational play, which Jack and Faraaz will likely then pick up on, according to Dr Brzezicki.
‘Fiona defended him and him her, and she was a Traitor,’ he explained.
‘And although he threw suspicion on Rachel yesterday, he voted with her again – they have voted identically since mid game.’
Stephen’s real downfall was not voting for Rachel during last night’s roundtable, the mathematician adds.
‘Stephen should have cut off Rachel and voted her out,’ Dr Brzezicki explained.
‘Even if she survives, she will go next and Stephen will have more attention drawn to him for this.
‘Cutting her off masks his identity as a Traitor further.
‘In the scenario where he wins, he also wants to win alone so he gets all the prize money.
‘This was the time to cut her out of the picture.’
Dr Brzezicki’s prediction comes shortly after scientists revealed why the Faithfuls find it so hard to spot who’s lying – and say it’s all down to their faces.
A study from the School of Psychology at the University of Aberdeen found when people encounter groups, they judge their trustworthiness by combining their facial features into one ‘composite face’, which researchers say can have serious implications for how they perceive them.
Postgraduate student Fiammetta Marini explained: ‘We know that we subconsciously judge whether an individual is trustworthy based on facial characteristics.
‘For example, high eyebrows that seem surprised–looking in their shape, along with a U–shaped mouth, are usually perceived as trustworthy.
‘On the other hand, eyes close together or lower eyebrows are often perceived as untrustworthy.’
Thankfully, there’s not long to wait to find out if Dr Brzezicki’s prediction is correct.
The Traitors final will air on BBC One tonight at 20:30.
WHAT ARE THE NINE WAYS TO SPOT A LIAR?
The big pause: Lying is quite a complex process for the body and brain to deal with. First your brain produces the truth which it then has to suppress before inventing the lie and the performance of that lie.
This often leads to a longer pause than normal before answering, plus a verbal stalling technique like ‘Why do you ask that?’ rather than a direct and open response.
The eye dart: Humans have more eye expressions than any other animal and our eyes can give away if we’re trying to hide something.
When we look up to our left to think we’re often accessing recalled memory, but when our eyes roll up to our right we can be thinking more creatively. Also, the guilt of a lie often makes people use an eye contact cut-off gesture, such as looking down or away.
The lost breath: Bending the truth causes an instant stress response in most people, meaning the fight or flight mechanisms are activated.
The mouth dries, the body sweats more, the pulse rate quickens and the rhythm of the breathing changes to shorter, shallower breaths that can often be both seen and heard.
Overcompensating: A liar will often over-perform, both speaking and gesticulating too much in a bid to be more convincing. These over the top body language rituals can involve too much eye contact (often without blinking!) and over-emphatic gesticulation.
The poker face: Although some people prefer to employ the poker face, many assume less is more and almost shut down in terms of movement and eye contact when they’re being economical with the truth.
The face hide: When someone tells a lie they often suffer a strong desire to hide their face from their audience. This can lead to a partial cut-off gesture like the well-know nose touch or mouth-cover.
Self-comfort touches: The stress and discomfort of lying often produces gestures that are aimed at comforting the liar, such as rocking, hair-stroking or twiddling or playing with wedding rings. We all tend to use self-comfort gestures but this will increase dramatically when someone is fibbing.
Micro-gestures: These are very small gestures or facial expressions that can flash across the face so quickly they are difficult to see. Experts will often use filmed footage that is then slowed down to pick up on the true body language response emerging in the middle of the performed lie.
The best time to spot these in real life is to look for the facial expression that occurs after the liar has finished speaking. The mouth might skew or the eyes roll in an instant give-away.
Heckling hands: The hardest body parts to act with are the hands or feet and liars often struggle to keep them on-message while they lie.
When the gestures and the words are at odds it’s called incongruent gesticulation and it’s often the hands or feet that are telling the truth.
