Super El Niño will be strongest EVER recorded, new predictions suggest,
The brewing super El Niño will likely be the strongest ever recorded, new predictions suggest.
The latest modelling from the European Centre for Medium–Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows that sea temperatures will be well above average later this year.
Scientists measure the intensity of El Niño using the Niño 3.4 index, which records sea surface temperature anomalies between 5 degrees north and 5 degrees south latitude, and 120 degrees west and 170 degrees west longitude.
The two strongest El Niño years on record took place in 2015 to 2016 and 1997 to 1998, in which the Niño 3.4 index reached a staggering 2.3°C (4.1°F).
Now, scientists predict these previous records will pale in comparison with this year’s event.
In almost every scenario, temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean will climb 3°C (5.4°F) above average by December.
However, some worrying simulations show that the sea surface will be more than 4°C (7.2°F) warmer in this critical region.
Ben Noll, a meteorologist and global weather writer at the Washington Post, wrote on X: ‘Almost every scenario now reaches past +3˚C, with a cluster of high–end scenarios in excess of +4˚C. This outlook now depicts the strongest El Niño on record.’
The latest weather models from the European Centre for Medium–Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) show that the coming El Niño event is likely to be the strongest ever recorded
The coming ‘Super El Niño’ is poised to trigger a spike in global temperatures and widespread changes to weather patterns, triggering more rain in the US and a drier summer in the UK
This warming pattern is part of a naturally occurring weather cycle called the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which shifts between hot and cool phases every two to seven years.
During the El Niño part of the cycle, warm waters that build up in the Pacific spread out and raise the Earth’s average surface temperature.
The hotter these waters become, the stronger and more pronounced the effect on global weather will be.
During the last El Niño cycle, which ran between June 2023 and April 2024, the extra injection of heat added to the already warming climate made 2024 the hottest year on record.
This extra warming also made 2024 the first year to breach the 1.5˚C (2.7˚F) warming limit set out in the Paris Agreement.
Now, scientists think that the world is about to begin an even stronger El Niño event that could send global temperatures even higher.
The most recent modelling from the ECMWF uses ‘relative indices’, which account for the background warming trend to isolate the changes caused by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Even the most conservative models show that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific will be around 2˚C (3.6˚F) above average.
However, the Niño 1+2 index, which measures the small region of highly variable waters off the coast of South America, suggests sea surface temperatures could be close to 5˚C (9˚F) above average by November.
During the record–breaking 1982–83 El Niño, the monthly Niño 1+2 Index peaked at 4.2˚C (7.6˚F) and reached just 3.9˚C (7˚F) in 1997–98.
These predictions come as experts predict extreme heat ‘nearly everywhere’ this summer as the Super El Niño comes into force.
The World Meteorological Organisation recently predicted that there was an 80 per cent chance of El Niño beginning in June or August and a 90 per cent chance of the event lasting until at least November.
Likewise, NASA satellite data recently revealed that a swell of warm water hundreds of miles wide has arrived in the Pacific Ocean.
These ‘Kelvin waves’ typically form after brief periods when winds over the far western equatorial Pacific Ocean moving from east to west change direction.
That effect, combined with a general weakening of easterly winds along the equator, causes water in the tropics of the western Pacific to get warmer and sea levels to rise.
Worryingly, this is typically a sign that an El Niño event is about to begin.
The most recent modelling from the ECMWF uses ‘relative indices’, which account for the background warming trend to isolate the changes caused by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation
This comes after NASA found that a swell of warm water hundreds of miles wide has arrived in the Pacific Ocean
‘Waves of higher, warmer water move eastward across the Pacific Ocean a few months before an El Niño emerges. Several have shown up in 2026 satellite data’, NASA explained.
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The ominous sign a SUPER El Niño is imminent: Parts of the Atlantic Ocean are 5°C hotter than usual
This will likely send global temperatures soaring and cause significant changes to global weather patterns.
While each El Niño varies, the event typically brings increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia.
In contrast, there will be drier conditions over Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.
Meanwhile, scientists say there’s a strong chance 2026 will be the hottest year ever recorded.
