Kamala Harris is seeing a last-minute surge in momentum over Donald Trump in the final days of one of the closest presidential elections in history.
The vice president was given a surprise jolt on Saturday night with a poll showing she is ahead in the reliably Republican state of Iowa, while DailyMail.com’s election forecast shows her gaining on the 78-year-old former president.
The final Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll has Harris leading Trump 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, less than three days before Election Day.
It was a shocking result in a state the Democrats haven’t won since Barack Obama in 2012 and could be an outlier.
An Emerson poll that was also released Saturday has Trump up over Harris 53% to 43%.
The differing surveys show that the gap between the two candidates could be getting even closer in what is expected to be a historically tight election on Tuesday night.
Trump and Harris are essentially tied across the country, and the margins in the seven battlegrounds that will likely decide the race are razor-thin.
More than 70 million Americans have voted early and millions more will cast their ballots on November 5.
Polling in Iowa September showed Trump with a four point lead over Harris and the campaign has insisted this is not what will happen in the race.
In a memo on Saturday night, aides pointed to the poll by Emerson released Saturday that shows Trump in the lead by 10 points.
That ‘far more closely reflects the state of the actual Iowa electorate’ says the Trump camapign.
The campaign also ripped into the method used in the Des Moines Register poll and added that Republicans are seeing a massive surge in early voters in comparison to 2020.
It picked apart ever aspect of the survey, including the suggestion Harris is leading among women by 20 points and seniors by 19.
The former president had an 18 point lead for over President Biden in The Hawkeye State in June before he dropped out of the race.
But the tables have since turned the new survey reveals, presenting a potential but highly unlikely new path to victory for Harris and her campaign.
The three point lead for Harris is well within the margin of error of the poll and Trump is still the favorite to win the state by a comfortable margin.
The Democrats had written off the state, with Harris instead focusing on the vital seven battlegrounds.
Surprisingly the survey also found that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received three percent of the vote.
The Kennedy notably had nine percent of the vote in the state according to polls conducted in June.
Her improving in the Midwest state comes amid a media blitz as she appears on radio shows, cable channels and soon to be Saturday Night Live.
The surprise lead for Harris is buoyed by independent women voters, which have been expected to break for the Democrat as men turn to Trump in droves.
Harris has a 28 point lead with these women over Trump. Independent men, on the other hand, are breaking for the Republican.
Whereas, another Iowa poll shows the race firmly in the Republican’s grasp.
An Emerson College poll found that the ex-president holds a 53 percent lead to Harris 43 percent.
The 10 point lead for Trump in that survey is safely within the three point margin of error.
Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds rejected the results of the poll on Saturday night by suggesting Republicans had an advantage in early voting.
‘Iowa Republicans are leading in early voting for the first time in decades, and have increased our voter registration advantage by 130,000+,’ Reynolds wrote on X.
‘President Trump will win Iowa if we vote and turnout our friends. Let’s prove the Des Moines Register wrong again!’ she said.
Both of the Iowa surveys were released on Saturday just three days before Election Day.
The latest J.L. Partners election forecast model delivered to DailyMail.com Saturday also spells bad news for Trump.
The model is trending away from ‘lean’ Trump into ‘toss up’ territory.
Trump remains the favorite, and he wins in 62.2 percent of simulations.
But that is a drop of 2.5 points since Friday and he has now lost seven points in five days, reflecting a string of polls favorable to Kamala Harris.
All the swing states have seen movement against Trump.
Callum Hunter, J.L. Partners’ data scientist, writes in his latest briefing note:
‘It is now clear that the momentum of recent polling is in Harris’ favor. Trump’s win probability has dropped 7 points in five days and if more polling is released that shows similar patterns from recent days then the race will flip from LEAN Trump to TOSSUP before election day.’
