Russia is preparing to take NATO on in a war and may be ready to attack within just a year of ending its invasion of Ukraine, a top European spy agency has warned.
A report from the MIVD, the spy agency of the Netherlands, suggested that Russia is still the biggest and most direct threat to the continent, and is already preparing for a possible conflict with NATO.
It added that it was highly unlikely that it would start a war while it is still battling Ukraine.
However, the Kremlin is being emboldened by its ever-deepening ties with China, the MIVD said, adding that Beijing’s cyber-espionage capabilities are now on par with the US.
Vice Adm. Peter Reesink, MIVD’s leader, said China’s cyber operations are ‘very capable, and they are organised in a very complex way.’
He added: ‘We are vulnerable and we’re not always capable of seeing all the threats China produces.’
The spy agency said that Russia is becoming more and more confident in its ability to hit military and civilian targets in the West as a result of its growing ties with China.
It said that Russia is keen to benefit from Chinese exports that supports its arms industry, while China wants to learn from Russia’s combat experience in Ukraine.
Russia is preparing to take NATO on in a war and may be ready to attack within just a year of ending its invasion of Ukraine. Pictured – Vladimir Putin at a meeting at the Kremlin on April 22, 2026
A firefighter works at a site of Russian strikes, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Sumy, Ukraine, in this screen grab taken from a handout video released on April 21, 2026
A residential apartment building remains damaged after a Russian drone attack on April 21, 2026 in Sumy, Ukraine
On top of this, destabilised relationships between the nations of the West have put Europe at a greater risk, particularly ‘where rules become blurred and power becomes increasingly determinant.’
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Earlier today, the chief executive of the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) warned that Britain should brace for a rise in cyberattacks linked to hostile states.
Richard Horne said the agency continues to handle about four nationally significant cyber incidents a week on average and that the highest-impact attacks are increasingly tied to governments rather than criminal gangs alone. The NCSC is part of the UK’s intelligence agency GCHQ.
Criminal threats such as ransomware remain the most common risk facing organisations, Horne told the government’s annual CYBERUK conference in Glasgow, according to a copy of his speech.
But he said the majority of the most serious incidents now originate ‘directly or indirectly’ from nation states, including China, Iran and Russia. He said such activity was being directed at Britain and its European partners.
Horne also warned that the UK is living through ‘the most seismic geopolitical shift in modern history.’
MI5 said last year that authorities had disrupted more than 20 Iran-linked plots since 2022, some of which targeted individuals living in Britain.
‘Were we to be in, or near, a conflict situation, the UK would likely face hacktivist attacks at scale,’ Horne warned, adding that such campaigns could cause disruption comparable to major ransomware attacks, but without the option of paying to restore systems.
How should the UK and Europe respond to the growing threats from Russia and China?
A Russian Uragan multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) of the Zapad group of Russian forces firing at an undisclosed location in Ukraine on April 21, 2026
Firefighters extinguish a fire in a house following a Russian drone attack in Shostka, northeastern Ukraine, on April 19, 2026
Mathieu Cousin, a cyber risk and threat intelligence strategist at insurers AXA XL, said last month that there was also likely to be a rise in cyberactivity linked to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
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‘When geopolitical tensions rise, cyber activity follows. In this conflict, Iranian state-aligned and affiliated groups are using cyber operations as another way to respond,’ he said.
Horne said on Wednesday that advances in artificial intelligence were expected to accelerate cyberattacks by enabling faster identification of vulnerabilities, even as the technology offers opportunities to strengthen defences.
At the same conference, Security Minister Dan Jarvis called on leading AI companies to work with the government to build AI-powered cyber-defence capabilities to protect critical national infrastructure.
Jarvis also invited businesses to sign a voluntary Cyber Resilience Pledge and announced £90million of additional investment over three years to bolster cybersecurity, including support for small and medium-sized firms.
In September, the former head of MI5, Baroness Eliza Manningham-Buller, warned we may be ‘already at war with Russia.’
Manningham-Buller said Moscow’s ‘extensive’ deployment of cyber attacks, intelligence work, ‘physical attacks’ and ‘sabotage’ in Britain are tantamount to conflict.
The Baroness told the Lord Speaker’s Corner podcast – which is produced by the House of Lords – that Putin expert Fiona Hill ‘may be right in saying we’re already at war with Russia’.
