Nigel Farage is on course to become prime minister at the next election, according to a major new poll.
Reform would have an outright majority of more than 50 seats if the next national vote was held today, the MRP poll of 5,000 people by PLMR and Electoral Calculus shows.
Its findings may send shockwaves through Labour and the Conservatives, who both hemorrhage seats to the right-wing party under the projection.
Labour is on course to lose almost 300 seats at the hands of voters deeply unhappy about its economic plans, going from 412 to 118.
And many are expected to swing directly to Reform, which is set to go from five MPs to 377.
Keir Starmer has already been forced into a major U-turn over planned cuts to winter fuel handouts for pensioners that were deeply unpopular.
And Chancellor Rachel Reeves is facing claims that she will have to raise taxes further in the autumn’s Budget in order to maintain and increase public spending.
But the party is also unpopular with left wing voters unhappy at plans to cut disability benefits and foreign aid to fund defence spending.
Among those predicted to lose their seats by the poll is Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who is touted as a possible future Labour leader.
The Tories, already reeling from losing 251 seats in 2024, would be reduced to a rump of just 29, slipping to become the fourth party behind the Liberal Democrats (69), and only just ahead of the Scottish National Party (26).
Martin Baxter, the founder of Electoral Calculus, said: ‘This is our first MRP poll to show Reform could have an outright parliamentary majority if there were an election soon.
‘The ”big two” established parties now only command the support of 41 per cent of the public, which is unprecedented in the last hundred years.
‘If Labour could bring back disaffected centre-left voters from the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, then they could easily beat Reform.
‘As it stands, Reform is firmly out in front.’
It comes as Reform is facing major questions about its economic policies.
This week Mr Farage unveiled plans for the ‘Britainnia Card’, which would reinstate non-dom status for wealthy individuals in exchange for a £250,000 one-off fee which would be given to Britain’s poorest workers.
Non-doms would be offered a 10-year renewable residence permit and a return to the controversial arrangement whereby overseas income can be shielded from UK tax.
They would also avoid inheritance tax, with the one-off payment then being distributed to Britain’s bottom 10 per cent of earners.
Announcing the policy Mr Farage said: ‘Many talented people are leaving, and we want as a party as many entrepreneurs, as many risk-takers, as many job creators, as many people paying lots of tax, as many people investing huge sums of money – we want as many of them as possible to be in our country.’
But the Institute for Fiscal Studies said the scheme had ‘problems’ and may end up being ‘relatively attractive to non-doms with high offshore wealth, but not necessarily to those who want to invest that wealth in the UK.’
And it warned the plan to directly distribute the received money to workers ‘would face serious administrative challenges’.
Dan Neidle, founder of Tax Policy Associates, claimed the policy would cost the UK up to £34 billion, warning that some highly skilled and highly paid professionals would not be able to afford the £250,000.
Keir Starmer faces delaying his flagship benefits reforms to avert a disastrous Commons defeat amid a mounting revolt today.
The PM is looking down the barrel of a huge rebellion with nearly 130 MPs having signed an amendment that would effectively kill off the plans.
Rachel Reeves has been ringing round backbenchers warning that losing the curbs to health and disability benefits would ‘devastate’ the government.
Even with the proposed £5billion of savings welfare costs will still be soaring, and economists believe she will have to hike taxes in the Autumn to balance the books.
The Bill is due in the Commons for second reading on Tuesday, but the scale of the insurrection is enough to overturn Labour’s huge majority. One minister has already quit in protest, with others thought to be ready to walk out.
Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham urged the leadership to think again last night, joining London Mayor Sadiq Khan in speaking out.
‘The Government needs to take a more unifying path… there is genuine, deep anxiety about these proposals,’ Mr Burnham told the BBC’s Newsnight.
