Experts have sounded the death knell for the manual gearbox, declaring that car makers will axe them before the end of the decade – and they say diesel engines won’t be far behind.
The extinction of manual transmissions is inherently tied to the switch to electric cars, which typically use single-speed automatic gearboxes.
However, its demise is also being driven by motorists’ preference for the simplicity of an automatic.
The traditional gear stick will be ditched by car makers ahead of the wholesale ban on sales of new petrol and diesel vehicles in 2030, analysts at Vehicle Data Global (VDG) forecast, suggesting this will happen in the next three years.
It says EVs are already wiping them out, but believes a ‘moment is approaching’ when ‘hard economics’ will kill off manual gearboxes once and for all.
VDG says manufacturers will be ‘reluctant to maintain the overheads and tooling’ required to produce cars with the choice of manual or automatic transmissions, especially with the cost of parts and energy rising.
Earlier this year, a market-wide review found that just 23 per cent of new cars in showrooms now have a gear stick, falling from around two thirds a decade ago.
Automotive market analysts have forecast that the manual gearbox will be ‘extinct’ for new models by 2030. And the diesel engine might also disappear around the same time
VDG’s experts say although diesel’s market share has fallen dramatically since the 2015 emissions cheating scandal, the decline of manual transmissions is accelerating faster.
They believe this is underpinned as much by consumer preference as the transition to electrified cars.
Analysis shows that the share of petrol and diesel cars with manual gearboxes has halved since 2016, suggesting EVs are not solely responsible for the shift away from the gear stick.
The study found that, where consumers still actively had a transmission choice for a traditional combustion-engine car, only 34 per cent chose a manual in 2025 – down from 55 per cent in 2019 – as the ease and comfort of an automatic was more desirable.
Latest car registration data also shows that diesel is becoming increasingly unpopular, with fewer than one in 20 (4.8 per cent) new models on our roads in 2026 being diesels.
This is down from one in two new motors just over a decade earlier, as car makers steer away from the ‘dirty’ connotations associated with the fuel type.
As such, VDG predicts that both may disappear from the car market by the end of the decade.
‘Both trends suggest near-simultaneous extinction as soon as 2030, with research, development and production costs increasingly seen as unviable by manufacturers,’ the report says.
It would mark the end of the road for the trusty ‘motorway mile-munchers’ made popular by sales reps in the 2000s, which became incredibly popular thanks to generous tax incentives for running diesel cars introduced by the New Labour government.
Ben Hermer, operations director at VDG, said: ‘The moment is fast approaching when the economics of maintaining a manual transmission option don’t add up, given the R&D, certification and other overheads involved in developing and refining gearboxes, even if there remains some demand in the market.
‘Based on current trend data, between 5 per cent and 10 per cent of cars will theoretically still be manual by 2030.
‘But manufacturers will be looking hard at whether maintaining manual gearbox programmes for a shrinking share of the market makes economic sense, while they manage the overall pressures of transitioning from ICE [internal combustion engine] and competing with international market entrants in the EV sector.’
As well as manual gearboxes enduring a swift decline, diesel engines are becoming increasingly unpopular and now account for fewer than one in 20 new car sales
Currently, just 67 of the 292 new models sold by the UK’s top 30 manufacturers are available as a manual – down sharply from 197 models in 2016, according to analysis by CarGurus.
At the current rate of decline, combined with the upcoming ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars, the manual gearbox will be extinct in new models by the end of the decade, it also predicted.
For motorists who still want to enjoy the involvement of changing gear themselves, there are brands that are still offering a variety of models with manual gearboxes.
Dacia’s range of six combustion-engine cars all come with a manual transmission as standard. Only the electric Spring EV doesn’t have one.
Ford (six), Hyundai, Kia, Skoda and VW (five each) are the other car makers with the widest choice of models with manual choices.
Below is a brand-by-brand list of manual gearbox options currently available in showrooms.
Automatic-only driving tests on the rise
With the skill of changing gear set to become obsolete beyond the next decade, learners are already preparing for a world of driving without manual gear shifting, with automatic-only driving test volumes reaching record highs, according to DVSA figures.
More than one in four new drivers chose to take their test in an automatic car, based on figures from the previous fiscal year.
Of the 1,839,753 practical driving tests taken in 2024/25, 479,556 were in automatics. That represents 26.1 per cent of all tests.
This is a significant increase from 23.4 per cent the previous year and just 19.2 per cent in 2022/23.
Five years earlier (2019/20), automatic driving tests accounted for just 12.7 per cent of all practical tests; wind the clock back a decade (to 2014/15) and they represented a mere 6.9 per cent.
It means automatic driving tests have risen from fewer than one in 14 of all examinations taken ten years ago to one in four today.
But despite the general belief that they are easier to drive, pass rates in automatics are statistically lower.
In the last fiscal year, the pass rate for auto-only tests was just 43.9 per cent; across all driving tests, the average pass rate was 48.7 per cent.
Rules stipulate that auto-only licence holders face more restrictions on the cars they can drive.
While anyone who passes their test in a manual car can legally drive any motor irrespective of its gearbox, those who take auto-only tests are limited strictly to automatic vehicles.
This could present a problem in some scenarios, especially when holidaying in countries where manual gearboxes are still common, including much of Europe.
Motorists hiring cars abroad may face limited or no automatic options from rental providers, especially during peak holiday seasons.
They may also encounter higher charges if they specifically request a car with an automatic transmission.
