These titles are not supposed to be easy. Pep Guardiola is at fault for lulling us into thinking that actually, they are and that relentlessly merciful, almost obnoxious, winning runs are the norm.
They are not. What Manchester City have managed over the years skews expectations of champions and how journeys to the finish line are timed.
When Declan Rice somewhat forlornly claimed on Sunday that ‘it is not done’, he was absolutely right. Wednesday night in Burnley proved as much.
The City tortoise is just about still methodically skuttling along, now nudging ahead of the hare by a hair. That specific hair being goals scored, the rivals level on points.
Arsenal had been top of the Premier League for 200 days. They have occupied that position for 524 days across three of the last four seasons.
Not now, not after City’s nervous night in east Lancashire when Burnley’s relegation was confirmed but their performance offered more hope than anything since at least Christmas.
‘In the last minute with their corner, I said “oh God” – we can draw despite the way we played,’ Pep Guardiola admitted after seeing his side score just once from 28 shots. ‘James Ward-Prowse, the best taker I’ve ever seen in my career. You never know.’
They prevailed. Guardiola headed towards the tunnel in deep conversation with Nathan Ake, the Dutchman seemingly acting as a soundboard for his manager’s frustrations.
But once Guardiola had settled, congratulated his team for leapfrogging Arsenal – looking down on the rest for the first time since the opening weekend – he was talking up an ‘extraordinary’ display in a description that betrayed his touchline demeanour.
Relegated with four games remaining, the less said about this Burnley season the better, one when supporters turned on Scott Parker and plenty stayed away on the night they were read their last rites. Apathy is a disease not easily cured.
Yet there were spells when Burnley fashioned opportunities, City defensively ropey and supporters watching in north London red fidgeting in their gaming chairs while streaming live on YouTube.
In those moments, Guardiola appeared picture of frustration at squandered chances and misplaced balls. That time of the season; Fergie used to have a name for it.
But the tortoise continues to shuffle on at its own pace. Slow and (ultimately) steady. Arsenal racing clear? Don’t panic, trust they trip up. That has been the pattern of a few of Guardiola’s title wins and a seventh in nine years would be no different were they to manage the feat. Never the fastest out the blocks but so often there at the end.
Erling Haaland scored the only goal of the game as Man City beat Burnley at Turf Moor
The regularity of this is such that the City tortoise is now a meme, the animation smirking with smug satisfaction and actually created ironically by a supporter in 2020 when they meekly surrendered the crown to Liverpool.
Irony initially but quickly it appeared prescient. In 2023 and 2024, Arsenal were hauled in from distance. With five games to go, 2026 is possessing an eerily familiar feel for Mikel Arteta.
With a twist though. This is not a vintage City team, not one for Guardiola’s pantheon – as evidenced at Turf Moor. Given the change in personnel over 18 months, they remain in transition and under those circumstances, this will still be Arsenal’s biggest opportunity to end the long drought.
Arsenal’s run-in is slightly gentler and the difference is merely goal difference. Burnley are heading for the Emirates too, which may have a bearing.
The twist is also how this has been manufactured. Not the long, unerring winning runs of the past. Twelve on the bounce took it away from the Gunners three years ago, on the way to a Treble. Twelve from the last 14 fixtures two years ago as they secured an historic fourth consecutive crown.
But the margin of victory will not leave Pep Guardiola totally satisfied in a tense title race
This winning run stands at three and can only reach eight; City can only hit a maximum of 85 points – fewer than any of City’s other titles, including under Roberto Mancini and Manuel Pellegrini.
It’s not the same persistent and irresistible quality and were Arsenal to end the campaign second then an inquisition would be needed around their manager.
Guardiola has pondered this drop in points and, publicly at least, cannot nail down as to whether that is a dip in their own output or a sharp rise in the abilities elsewhere in the Premier League.
As City wasted countless chances following Erling Haaland’s fifth-minute opener, crafted by Jeremy Doku and starting with Marc Guehi near his own goal line, the former seemed more likely.
For the past eight months, the Catalan has been attempting to locate the exact combination that unlocks a hugely talented selection of players who are finding their way together. He has undoubtedly had fun this season when trying six, seven, eight different formations and ways of building from the back and attacking.
Many thought City would run away with it after opening the scoring inside five minutes
Many of the solutions – like the box midfield and no wingers – have helped them stay just close enough to Arsenal in the short term.
That has led them here and to euphoria among the fans, serenading John Stones, a substitute again – he’s not featured in the league since December – from the end backing onto Burnley Cricket Club following confirmation of the obvious that he is departing on a free transfer.
Another old-timer, Bernardo Silva, saw fit to gain more control as the night meandered.
City fans sang relentlessly but that was not matched by the intensity of their heroes. Zian Flemming had sightings, Abdukodir Khusanov had to indulge in the last ditch.
Not comfortable for a team without Rodri, missing with a groin issue, and proof – if it were needed – that this fight to be crowned champions of the land is heading for the wire without an absolute clear favourite.
