Lord Ashcroft’s new poll, which The Mail on Sunday publishes exclusively today, reveals an extraordinary, unprecedented state of affairs in British politics.
Three parties – the Tories, Reform UK and the Greens – are level with each other. Each has the support of 21 per cent of the voters.
Meanwhile the Labour Party, which currently holds a huge Parliamentary majority and forms the Government, can only count on the backing of 17 per cent.
Conservative forces in this country are going to need to think hard about how they respond to this news. Arithmetic of this sort could even put the Greens into office in some terrifying coalition.
This kind of thing may have been common for years in states with Proportional Representation (PR).
In such countries they either have perpetual weak government, shared out among an unchanging cast of professional politicians, or they have stifling grand coalitions in which healthy opposition is eliminated.
Until recently, our First- Past-The-Post system preserved us from such things. It used to grant us blessings that PR cannot give – a clear two-way choice between distinct parties, strong, decisive government between elections and the ability to get rid of leaders we don’t like. But, especially since the Blair era, and even more so since the Brexit referendum, the major parties no longer mirror the divisions in opinion in this country.
It is time they did, but thoughtfully, not by pandering to extremes or chasing the nearest crowd.
This is why we urge the Tory Party and Reform UK to explore constructive co-operation while there is still time.
It is heartening to see how many people support lifting the foolish ban on drilling for North Sea oil. Green zealotry has for far too long prevented this sensible step. But the Iran war has underlined just how over-dependent this country
is on imported fuel, and how unwise it is for us to refuse to take advantage of a great blessing on our own doorstep.
Drilling for North Sea oil is a win-win
If we lift the ban, our supplies of energy will become more secure and our tax revenues will increase. It will create jobs. So the Treasury, employment, national security and economic growth would all benefit. It also makes sense in a world where this country will still require oil and gas for many years to come.
This is especially so now we see how quickly chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz can be closed without notice.
But we would also be taking a step back towards reason. It is only dogma, enforced by the ultra-green Ed Miliband, that has kept us from making this sensible decision.
The same ideology has also resulted in a number of other energy mistakes we need to put right. Over-dependence on renewables has been very costly. A rethink on all these issues is long overdue.
Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage both know it. If they want sensible conservatism back in power, they should take advantage of this encouraging swing in public opinion. For once, doing the right thing will be popular.
