It must be starting to dawn on the Labour Party that Thursday’s elections will not be the end of their agony, but the beginning of a still greater crisis.
Sir Keir Starmer awaits his inevitable humiliation, following his miserable handling of His Majesty’s Government over the last two years and the unending embarrassment of the Mandelson affair.
But something much deeper has shifted. Sir Keir’s 2024 victory, rather like Sir John Major’s apparent Tory triumph in 1992, may eventually come to be seen as a poisoned prize, which has permanently damaged its winner.
And wiser figures at the top of the Labour Party may be wondering whether they really want Sir Keir’s wobbling crown, or would rather leave him in place to endure yet more punishment.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has crashed the economy. Health Secretary Wes Streeting cannot fix the NHS. Nobody can stop the boats.
Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson’s spiteful war on private schools has entrenched privilege in education and hurt the striving classes. Crime grows and police seem to have no idea what to do about it.
The Navy rusts and shrinks. Our influence on the world shrinks with it. And at the basic level we have become a country of fly-tipping, potholes and brazen shoplifting. People are sick of these problems, and sick of the failure of the major parties to tackle or overcome them.
At the last General Election, it was the Tories who were punished for this. They have responded by electing their most convincing and persuasive leader for years, who is doing well in very tough circumstances.
Sir Keir Starmer is pictured here with Energy Secretary Ed Miliband during a boat trip on the River Tees during a visit to PD Ports on April 18, 2024
Green Party leader Zack Polanski makes a speech at People’s History Museum in Manchester on May 1
But now it is Labour’s turn to do its penance. A change of leader is unlikely to help and may make the problem worse. Which of the names now being canvassed to replace Sir Keir will inspire the party’s traditional base to return? Not one of them. And some of them will terrify everyone else, too.
If Sir Keir goes, and he still might not, his successor will have the dreary task of leading Labour to General Election defeat or, even worse for him and us, a coalition with Zack Polanski’s alarming, extremist and uncontrollable Greens.
Very serious times are coming, and very big decisions. These local and devolved elections are the voters’ last chance to let off steam and take out their frustrations on the political class. They will probably offer no great comfort to sensible people.
From now on, anyone seriously concerned with the country must work out how to make sure that a Labour Party, even more in the hands of the Left than before, and the Greens can be kept out of power when the General Election comes. And that could be sooner than we think.
The Tories and Reform UK must take on that job. Yes, we understand that they are now distinct parties and that relations between Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage do not run smoothly.
But from now on they must recognise that together they can save the country. Whereas if they refuse to co-operate, the conservative and patriotic cause will be in grave long-term danger.
