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There can’t be too many complaints about Andy Farrell’s selection for the first Test. After months of ‘predicted XVs’, he’s pretty much settled on the team everyone expected, when you factor in the injury to full-back Blair Kinghorn.
On the flipside, Australia’s team feels a little underwhelming without the injured Rob Valentini, Noah Lolesio and Will Skelton. They’re missing a lot of firepower and the Lions will go in as strong favourites.
I strongly believe the Wallabies need to win the first Test to have any chance of winning the series. There are going to the five key battle grounds at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane on Saturday – here’s how each side can win them.
1. HALF-BACKS
Tom Lynagh is making his debut at 10 for the Wallabies and it’s a big ask to throw the 22-year-old in against the Lions.
He’ll be playing behind an underpowered pack and that could be dangerous. Lynagh, who was born in Italy, educated at Epsom College in Surrey and is the son of Wallabies icon Michael, will really need his scrum-halves – Jake Gordon and Tate McDermott – to guide him through the game.
Throughout the provincial games, the Lions’ opponents have fallen into the trap of overplaying and allowing the Lions’ line-speed to eat them up. That ends up with errors and turnovers.
Guys like Ellis Genge and Tom Curry be putting a huge amount of pressure on Lynagh. I don’t think he’ll have a huge amount of time and he’ll probably experience pressure that he hasn’t felt before.
In that situation, your first instinct is to play a little bit deeper, but that’s what the Lions want. He has to be brave and keep trying to play at the line. I think the Wallabies will kick a lot and that responsibility will fall on Gordon and McDermott.
2. CAN LIONS NULLIFY SUAALII?
Joseph Suaalii is a beast of a man. He can beat you for speed, step you or offload. He’s like Finn Russell in the way he wants the defence to come onto him, because then he can use his skills.
He’s the superstar player but the Lions will be looking at stopping the supply to him as much, just as much as they look at stopping him individually. That means putting pressure on the players inside of him, getting at the 9, 10 and 12.
If you give Suaalii 20 touches in the opposition half, he will make you pay two or three times. So you want to bring that down to 10 touches.
Joe Schmidt will be really smart in how he uses Suaalii as an ‘in’ to the game because there’s no one on the field comes close to his aerial ability. The Wallabies will really need to use their kicking game to his advantage.
3. BREAKDOWN
The Wallabies have lost some size and power so they need to turn the breakdown into a scrap. They have good jackellers in guys like Fraser McReight so they will attack the Lions on the floor.
The Brumbies and Waratahs provided a really good template by flying off the line and being aggressive. It was a blueprint of how to make the breakdown difficult.
A lot of the Lions’ problems at the breakdown have come from little half-breaks. The Wallabies must take chances and push the boundaries. They’ll have to contest pretty much every breakdown because that’s their best chance of winning.
They have to make it as difficult as possible for Jamison Gibson-Park at the ruck because the Ireland scrum-half has so many weapons outside him.
| AUSTRALIA | THE LIONS |
|---|---|
| 15. Tom Wright | 15. Hugo Keenan (Ire) |
| 14. Max Jorgensen | 14. Tommy Freeman (Eng) |
| 13. Joseph Suaalii | 13. Huw Jones (Sco) |
| 12. Len Ikitau | 12. Sione Tuipulotu (Sco) |
| 11. Harry Potter | 11. James Lowe (Ire) |
| 10. Tom Lynagh | 10. Finn Russell (Sco) |
| 9. Jake Gordon | 9. Jamison Gibson-Park (Ire) |
| 1. James Slipper | 1. Ellis Genge (Eng) |
| 2. Matt Faessler | 2. Dan Sheehan (Ire) |
| 3. Allan Alaalatoa | 3. Tadhg Furlong (Ire) |
| 4. Nick Frost | 4. Maro Itoje (Eng, capt) |
| 5. Jeremy Williams | 5. Joe McCarthy (Ire) |
| 6. Nick Champion de Crespigny | 6. Tadhg Beirne (Ire) |
| 7. Fraser McReight | 7. Tom Curry (Eng) |
| 8. Harry Wilson (capt) | 8. Jack Conan (Ire) |
4. HANDLING ERRORS
Where the Lions have fallen short in their provincial games is their handling errors and breakdown penalties.
Handling errors give Australia an ‘in’. The Wallabies want the game to be broken up, so they want transitions.
They’ve got guys like tom Tom Wright and Max Jorgensen who come alive in those situations.
They don’t want it to be high phases because that will suit the Lions in terms of their pace, power and fitness.
If the Lions can keep the handling errors and penalties below 10, then I don’t see them having too many problems.
They’ve been forcing passes a little bit and it’s easy to get caught up in that when you’re dominating matches.
They’ve been playing close to the gain-line, which is high risk, so I think they can afford to step off a little bit and keep it tight. It’s about discipline and control.
5. REPLACEMENTS
I think Farrell would have gone with the Irish centre paring if Garry Ringrose was fit, but instead he’s gone with the Scottish partnership of Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones.
Those two have played so much with Finn Russell. Jones is a real link centre, he feeds back so much information and Russell knows what lines Jones will run.
Aki will bring in energy in the second half. If you look at the two benches, the Lions could easily rotate their bench and starters without losing too much.
Guys like Ollie Chessum and Ben Earl could easily be in the starting team. You can’t say the same about the Wallabies bench – it is going to be a huge ask for them.
Dan Biggar flew to Australia with Qatar Airways, recently named the world’s number one airline. Book and fly from Australia with Qatar Airways here: www.qatarairways.com
