Labour is facing the prospect of a near-wipe out in Birmingham at the local elections, according to a poll.
Research by More in Common suggests the party’s dominance of the city council will come to a shocking end after today’s vote.
Labour could lose 51 of its current tally of 65 seats, with Reform the biggest beneficiary. Nigel Farage’s insurgents could make an extraordinary jump from zero councillors at the last contest in 2022 to 47 this time.
Meanwhile, the public could install 17 independents – including pro-Gaza candidates.
Such an outcome would heap pressure on Keir Starmer, who is bracing for grim results across England, as well as in Scottish and Welsh Parliamentary elections.
The PM has been scrambling to put together a survival strategy to head off any coup attempt from angry MPs.
Government sources said Sir Keir is planning to give a major speech on Monday, where he could try to appease mutinous MPs by pledging to go further in unwinding Brexit.
There is also ongoing wrangling within Downing Street over whether to launch a reshuffle on Saturday, potentially before the final results are even in.
One senior aide told the Daily Mail the idea was getting a ‘lot of traction’ and any overhaul would need to be complete before Sir Keir’s speech.
But they suggested the PM was too weak to make any big moves, and Angela Rayner is still in negotiations with HMRC over unpaid tax.
‘What’s the point of a reshuffle if you’re just going to sack Liz Kendall and Peter Kyle,’ they said. ‘It doesn’t move the dial.’
In other twists and turns today:
- Labour agents are said to have warned activists not to get caught crying on camera when results are announced over the coming days;
- A YouGov poll has found 53 per cent of Brits think there should be a general election if Sir Keir is ousted, with 27 per cent against the idea;
- Nigel Farage has shown off his patriotic socks as he voted in Essex this morning, while Sir Keir was joined by wife Victoria in Westminster;
- Green leader Zack Polanski has faced further questions over his party’s attitude to Israel after saying Palestine is ‘on the ballot’ at the elections.
Keir Starmer and wife Victoria voted in Westminster this morning
The Birmingham authority has faced fury about the long-running bin strike causing misery for residents.
It has also been wrestling to fill a vast financial black hole fueled by a huge equal pay liability admission in 2023.
That resulted in services cuts and a 17.5 per cent council tax hike over the past two years.
Labour’s council leader John Cotton has insisted the financial crisis is now under control and claimed an end to the bin dispute is ‘within sight’, as he attempted to limit the electoral damage.
The More in Common survey found 26 per cent support for Reform and 23 per cent for Labour.
The Greens were seen as having the backing of 18 per cent, the Tories 15 per cent, independents 12 per cent and the Lib Dems 7 per cent.
However, the study suggested that Labour’s vote would not be efficiently distributed across council wards, meaning they will get a lower proportion of the 101 seats.
It would be the lowest number of councillors the party has ever held in the city.
The PM voted alongside wife Victoria in central London this morning as he faces a moment of maximum peril – with thousands of council seats up for grabs, as well as the Scottish and Welsh parliaments.
In a sign of how bad Labour believes things could get, activists are being given extraordinary advice not to cry on camera as the results come in.
The elections look set to shake the foundations of Britain’s two-party system, with voters set to vent their anger with Labour and the Conservatives by backing Reform and the Greens in large numbers.
Nigel Farage voted in Walton-on-the-Naze this morning as he hopes for big Reform gains
Labour’s leader in Wales, Baroness Morgan, could struggle to secure her own seat in the Senedd
Labour could suffer its worst ever round of local elections, losing more than 1,500 council seats in England and battling to avoid coming third in Scotland and Wales.
The PM’s rivals have been holding fire to see the scale of the meltdown.
Many suspect the outpouring of emotion will be great enough to sweep Sir Keir out of power – even though there is no consensus around a successor.
Alongside Ms Rayner’s ongoing tax issues, another often-touted successor, Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, is not even in the Commons currently.
Almost 25,000 candidates are fighting to be elected to more than 5,000 seats on 136 councils across England.
In Scotland, all 129 seats are up for election at Holyrood while voters in Wales will choose 96 members of the Senedd.
