Labour is on course to lose almost three-quarters of the seats the party is defending in next week’s local elections, a leading pollster warned on Wednesday night.
Pollster Robert Hayward said Labour is facing a ‘pincer movement’ from Reform and the Greens which could see it lose as many as 1,850 seats when voters go to the polls on 7 May.
Devastation on this scale would be significantly worse than Labour insiders have predicted – and would increase the chances of a push to topple Keir Starmer.
One Cabinet minister told the Sunday Times last week, that losses of 1,500 seats would trigger a coup, saying: ‘That would be the cut off for a collective nervous breakdown among cabinet colleagues.’
But Lord Hayward said the party was in danger of underestimating the scale of the threat it faces next week.
He told the Mail: ‘If they are predicting a nervous breakdown at 1,500 losses then some of them are not recognising the difficulties they are in. All the signs are it will be worse than that.
‘No government has ever faced a two-pronged attack on this scale from parties who are appealing to completely different audiences. So far it does not look like they have learned how to deal with either of them, let alone both.’
He added: ‘The only people not putting Keir Starmer on their leaflets are Labour.’
Red alert: Ministers have warned that losses on this scale could trigger a coup against the PM
In a sign of growing Labour angst, Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham yesterday warned Labour would have to take a ‘different course’ after next week’s poll.
‘I understand the real frustration people have got with politics and politicians,’ he told Bloomberg. ‘I honestly, I really understand that. And they’re right to say politics just hasn’t been working’
Mr Burnham, favourite to succeed Sir Keir, hinted he would try against to find a parliamentary seat after his return was blocked by Sir Keir this year.
‘We do need to reform Westminster,’ he said. ‘I can’t remove the kind of feeling that someday I will try and go back. I’m not ruling it out.’
At last year’s local elections, Labour lost around two-thirds of the seats it was defending. A loss of 1,850 seats next week would be almost three-quarters of the 2,558 it is defending this time – suggesting the party is still going backwards.
Lord Hayward, a Tory peer, said that the Conservatives are also on course for a bad night, with the party likely to lose around 600 of the 1,362 seats it is defending.
Losses on this scale would represent almost half of the seats the Conservatives are defending – a slight improvement on the two-thirds last time. Lord Hayward said the party still faced a ‘long road back’with the public following the crushing general election defeat in 2024.
Reform is set to be the big winner, with Nigel Farage’s party forecast to win around 1,550 across the country from virtually a standing start. Mr Farage himself has predicted sweeping gains against Labour in the North East, Yorkshire and the Midlands, along with gains against the Conservatives in traditional Tory strongholds in the south like Sussex and Essex.
The Greens, who currently hold 140 seats could win another 500 as the populist message of new leader Zack Polanski strikes a chord with left-wingers in parts of inner London and other metropolitan areas.
Independents could see their representation treble from 126 seats to 376.
