Kemi Badenoch is celebrating a Christmas poll bounce after the Conservatives closed the gap with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK to just three points.
The end-of-year survey puts Ms Badenoch’s party on 22 per cent – up from 20 per cent a month ago – suggesting that her improved Commons performances and fresh policy ideas are starting to ‘cut through’ to voters. Reform has dropped to 25 per cent.
The analysis, by former Conservative deputy chairman Lord Ashcroft, highlights the febrile state of Right-wing politics. In the equivalent survey a month ago, Reform UK enjoyed a seven-point lead, a margin which could have put Mr Farage within striking distance of Downing Street. But under these latest figures, his chances of becoming prime minister would rely on a deal with the Tories.
Labour is languishing in fourth place, a point behind Zack Polanski’s Greens. It means that unless Labour manages to improve its performance, the party’s hopes of returning to No 10 would rest on a Leftist coalition with the Greens and the Lib Dems.
Aggregating individual party scores, such a union would command the support of 47 per cent of voters – the same as the combined support for Tories and Reform. It means that if the Right fails to unite, the Left could have a clear path to continued power.
Ms Badenoch has managed to quell some of the disquiet on her backbenches in recent weeks by putting in more assured public performances.
She has highlighted the disarray in Sir Keir Starmer’s Government and started to set out a more coherent policy package, including the abolition of stamp duty and the scrapping of the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars after 2030.
By contrast, doubts have started to creep in among voters about whether Reform can move beyond the ‘Nigel Farage show’ to become an effective party of Government.
What do you think it would take for the Right to finally unite and challenge the Left’s coalition?
Go to comments When voters were asked whether Mr Farage has enough talented people to form an administration, only 17 per cent thought that he did, while 60 per cent did not.
Disillusionment with the Government has left voters itching for an election. A total of 39 per cent of people would like a ballot next year, compared with 26 per cent who prefer to wait until 2029, the latest point it can be legally held.
Die-hard Labour voters want to wait to give the party a chance to arrest its slump in popularity. Half its supporters want the Government to cling on until the end of the five-year term, while just 17 per cent want an election next year.
Many Labour supporters cling to the belief that a new leader such as Andy Burnham, Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner could turn their fortunes around. But while 51 per cent of Labour voters would like Ms Rayner back in Cabinet following her resignation for underpaying stamp duty, only 26 per cent of general voters agree. And they think she would make a worse prime minister than Sir Keir.
Mr Farage’s lead in the polls might be slipping, but he dominates the rankings in the festive element of the survey. He comes top when people are asked which party leader they would most like to spend New Year’s Eve with.
He is also ‘most likely to hide in the pub until Christmas lunch is ready’, ‘most likely to fall asleep in front of the TV after lunch’, ‘most likely to burn the lunch’, ‘most likely to get into an argument over lunch’ and ‘most likely to do something embarrassing at the office party’.
Sir Keir, however, is ‘most likely to make a boring speech at a Christmas party’ and ‘most likely to sneak away from a get-together to do some work’, while Ms Badenoch is ‘most likely to help clear up after Christmas lunch’ and was the most popular choice for a kiss under the mistletoe.
Casting a shadow over Christmas, however, is the economy. In total, 38 per cent of people say that they will have less money to spend on presents this year. Only 11 per cent say that they will be in a position to be more generous.
A total of 5,195 voters were polled from December 11 to 15.
