What I’m hearing about Kate’s royal future after her absence at Ascot

She’s been ‘to hell and back’ over the last year and a half, in the words of one who knows her well.

But while her physical recovery is still a ‘work in progress’, the Princess of Wales’s illness has left her with a firm ‘mental clarity’.

She knows more than ever what is important to her – and that she won’t be rushed on her journey back to full health.

In the wake of the drama surrounding Catherine’s mysterious non-appearance at Royal Ascot last week, I have been speaking to friends and associates about what is really going on behind the scenes. And, most importantly, how she is.

The princess had been due at Ascot on Wednesday when her husband was presenting a trophy. Her mother, sister-in-law and a whole host of friends would also be there that day.

But, minutes after the racecourse released Buckingham Palace’s official carriage list for the day – which showed the Prince and Princess arriving in a horse-drawn landau together – Kensington Palace announced she would not be attending after all.

Royal aides insisted the original list had issued in ‘error’ – but their explanation did little to halt speculation as to why, not least because it was clear that Ascot had, at some point, been told she planned to be there.

The Palace would only say that the princess was ‘disappointed’ but ‘has to find the right balance as she fully returns to public facing duties’.

And while the truth is that no-one still knows exactly why Catherine pulled out so suddenly, the incident has served to remind us that her return to duties remains something of a ‘work in progress’.

Everyone I have spoken to has pointed out that it’s easy to forget, given her starring role at this month’s Trooping the Colour ceremony – as well as appearances at the Order of the Garter ceremony and at the new V&A storehouse – that this time last year Catherine was undergoing chemotherapy after cancer was found following serious abdominal surgery in January.

Catherine, 43, has herself given us the occasional glimpse of what her treatment entailed, which included secretive visits to the Royal Marsden Hospital in London, where she was fitted with a semi-permanent ‘port’ into her chest.

This small device was inserted under the skin and kept in place until her treatment (delivered via the port through a special needle and a thin tube in vein close to the heart) was over, several weeks later.

Like a lot of patients, the princess has admitted she became almost ‘attached’ to this literal lifeline – which offers no cast-iron guarantee of success, even if you are a royal.

It’s an insight into the fear she must have felt as a young wife and mother throughout the gruelling and unpredictable process.

As I have previously revealed, the princess was seriously unwell in the run-up to her surgery in the first place.

And while that is a story only for her to tell – if she ever chooses to do so – I can say that, from what I understand, she is fortunate to even be speaking of recovery.

So, while she may be glowing on the outside, the drama over her last minute non-attendance at Royal Ascot last week is, perhaps, a timely reminder that the princess was really very poorly not so long ago.

And it’s why, to quote the princess herself, this year remains one of ‘balance’.

‘On some levels I actually think this is a good reminder that she was really seriously ill last year and underwent a significant period of chemo. As anyone who has been through that experience will tell you, you can feel very unwell for a long time afterwards. It can take years [to recover],’ one source says.

Funnily enough, when I wrote a piece for the Mail towards the end of last year, in which I first revealed that while she would be taking on a small number of royal engagements throughout the first half of 2025, there was no rush to return to royal duties full time, I was leapt on by critics, including those who claimed to be supporters of the princess. Nonsense, they insisted: she was in remission now – look at her go.

But, as this year has clearly demonstrated, the princess has indeed adopted a slow and steady return to royal life, balancing official duties with her ongoing recovery and role as a mother.

As someone told me at the time: some weeks you will see her a lot, others not. It’s a moveable feast, and one that continues in the same vein.

‘She wants to find the right balance and work with a greater degree of flexibility than before. This is a woman who plays a very important role in the monarchy [as Princess of Wales and future Queen], but in order for her to do it, both now and in the future, she needs to get this right,’ they said.

Yes, normality is returning – but as Catherine herself said ‘balance is key’.

That is why, I understand, we won’t see the princess in public this week, but we are ‘very likely’ to see her at Wimbledon, which starts Monday 30 June, in her role as royal patron of the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club.

She will also play a ‘significant’ part in next month’s French State Visit at Windsor Castle.

Although I am still waiting to hear whether she will attend the state banquet at Windsor Castle (the last time she did so was in November 2023 for the state visit of the South Korean President), I understand she will take part in the official ‘meet and greets’ for President Macron on July 8.

After that she and Prince William will decamp to Anmer Hall, their ten-bedroom Georgian home on the Sandringham estate in Norfolk, where they and their children can enjoy countryside pursuits, long bike rides and sailing.

They will also join the King and other senior royals at Balmoral in August.

We should not forget, of course, that Catherine’s young brood – Prince George, 11, Princess Charlotte, ten, and seven-year-old Prince Louis – have also endured a tough time.

As parents there is always only so much we can keep from our children, particularly when it comes to physical illness.

It’s one of the reasons, I am told, that she and Prince William have decided to breed from their adored spaniel, Orla. Not only has it been something fun for the children to look forward to, but I am told they are planning to keep one of the pups.

There are also big decisions for the Wales’ to take in the coming months, including their elder children’s education.

Several years ago I wrote that George had been put down for William’s old school, Eton, and Charlotte was likely to attend Catherine’s Alma mater, Marlborough. I haven’t heard anything of late to change my view on that.

Looking ahead to the autumn, while it cannot entirely be ruled out that the princess might undertake a foreign visit this year, I am told it is ‘not expected’ as it stands.

Kensington Palace’s main focus will be on the Prince of Wales’ environmental passion project the Earthshot Awards in Brazil this November.

Catherine could yet join him – ‘tbc’ is all that I can get at this stage – but my gut feeling is probably not.

‘She’s quite strict now at working out what she needs to be at and what she doesn’t,’ a source says.

‘And people forget that even if they aren’t seeing her in public, she is very hands-on behind the scenes with the team in the office. She has her own projects to pursue, such as her early years initiative. That’s a lifelong commitment for HRH.’

What we are likely to see more of, come the autumn, is travel within the UK: what we in the trade call the classic ‘royal away day’.

The princess tested the water with a two-day trip to the Inner Hebrides in April and appears keen to do more.

As far as the royal family is concerned, it’s an effective way of connecting with as many people as possible.

And as always, the princess will do it in her own time, and her own way.

She’s in a very positive place – we have seen that for ourselves in her occasional video updates. But time continues to be a healer.

Some in recent months have been tempted to compare her slow return to royal duties with the King’s continued heavy workload as head of state, despite still undergoing weekly treatment for cancer more than a year after his diagnosis.

Those I speak to urge caution in comparing the two, stressing that every patient is different and that people have no way of absolutely knowing what is going on behind the scenes.

It is, I would suggest, sensible advice.

From what I do know, Charles – whose stoicism over this past year has indeed been nothing short of remarkable – is entirely supportive of his daughter-in-law’s approach. He is, of course, a kind and sensible man.

But he also knows more than anyone that, moving forwards, the future of the historic institution he represents rests on getting this right.