Labour have taken a battering at the hands of Nigel Farage in a mega round of local elections that will seal Keir Starmer’s fate.
Overnight results point to stunning gains for Reform UK in what was once Labour’s Red Wall.
In Hartlepool, Labour lost every seat to Reform. The local Labour MP, whose wife was among the defeated candidates, made the first of what will be many calls for Sir Keir to resign.
The psychological blow is hard to overstate.
In Angela Rayner’s backyard, in Tameside, Labour lost all but one seat to Reform. Fellow cabinet minister Lisa Nandy saw Labour lose every seat to Mr Farage’s party in Wigan.
These are areas that stayed Labour even in the great Brexit election of 2019 when Boris Johnson made sweeping inroads into the party’s heartlands.
Labour have already thrown in the towel in Wales, where they had seemingly ruled forever, and there is no prospect of the hoped-for revival in Scotland.
The results also underline the fracturing of the UK’s two-party system. Labour is losing votes to everyone, everywhere.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage during a visit to Havering Town Hall in east London this morning
While the early headlines are all about the party’s losses to Reform, these have been fuelled in part by the fact that the Greens have split the Left-wing vote.
So far, Zack Polanski’s party has seen only a modest increase in councillors. That may change later when results start to roll in from inner city targets like Hackney.
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But it is already clear that a sharp increase in the Greens’ vote share has put Labour under attack from both Left and Right.
The Conservatives are also waking up to another difficult night at the polls. Kemi Badenoch’s party enjoyed an impressive result in Westminster, where it regained control of its former flagship.
But elsewhere it has been shipping votes to Reform in heavy numbers. Essex, where Mrs Badenoch and half her shadow cabinet are based, looks set to fall to Mr Farage.
Reform’s vote remains heavily weighted to areas that backed Brexit. But there are signs that it is extending its reach, with an expectation that Reform will take its first council in London, as well as performing strongly in Scotland and Wales – results that bolster Mr Farage’s claim to have established a truly national party capable of winning a general election.
Sir Keir said this morning that he takes ‘responsibility’ for Labour’s poor showing.
But the results suggest that he will be relieved of that responsibility before the next election.
Plenty of prime ministers have suffered difficult local election nights and survived.
What makes this different is the sense among many Labour MPs that the hostility towards their party is down to the PM personally.
Local leaders have begged him not to campaign in their areas. One MP said Sir Keir was ‘radioactive’ with voters on the doorstep. Few believe that he has what it takes to turn things around.
The only thing keeping him afloat is the division among his internal critics over who should replace him.
For now, there will be lots of talk about being ‘bolder’ – code for more Left-wing. But MPs have seen enough.
The PM’s fate is sealed. These results confirm he will not lead Labour into the next election. The only questions are how long he can cling on – and who will ultimately succeed him?
