Hurricane tracker reveals Melissa’s ‘catastrophic path’

Hurricane Melissa is on track to deliver a historic and catastrophic Category 5 strike on Jamaica on Tuesday, bringing life-threatening flash floods, landslides and destructive winds. 

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned residents and tourists: ‘Remain sheltered! Failure to act may result in serious injury or loss of life.’ 

Melissa’s intensity could fluctuate this morning due to internal processes, such as eyewall replacement cycles. Regardless, the storm is expected to hit Jamaica as an extremely dangerous major hurricane within the next 12 hours.

While interaction with Jamaica and eastern Cuba may cause some weakening, Melissa is still forecast to move over portions of the Bahamas as a strong hurricane on Wednesday.

The storm is currently moving north-northeast at about 4 mph and is expected to accelerate over the next few days as it tracks ahead of a strengthening trough over the southeastern US

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a hazardous conditions advisory for offshore waters along northeastern Florida and into the western Atlantic. 

While dangerous seas and strong winds are expected at sea, the advisory does not affect the US mainland.

However, the NWS warned that rough seas and increasing winds over the western Atlantic and offshore waters will persist through late Friday, as Melissa moves over the Atlantic.

Offshore waters near northeastern Florida will see fresh to strong south to southwest winds and rough seas through early Wednesday, while a new cold front moving offshore early Thursday will increase winds and waves over the western Atlantic ahead of Hurricane Melissa. 

Seas are expected to calm over the weekend as the storm moves north and away from the area.

Overall, hazardous marine conditions, including hurricane-force winds, tropical storm–force winds, and very high seas, will affect the Bahamas, the surrounding Atlantic waters, and the northeastern Florida offshore areas over the next several days.

However, meteorologists are more concerned about the impacts on Jamaica. 

AccuWeather vice president of forecasting operations Dan DePodwin said in a statement: ‘People across Jamaica are facing the most extreme hurricane impacts the island has ever experienced in recorded history. 

‘The catastrophic wind speeds combined with the slow forward motion of this storm are a deadly and destructive combination.’

He explained that towns in the path of Melissa’s eye will be hit with wind gusts above 160mph for several hours, and warned that some areas could get more than three feet of rainfall. 

‘The destruction could be unlike anything people in Jamaica have seen before,’ DePodwin said.

‘The island has never taken a direct hit from a Category 4 or a Category 5 hurricane in recorded history.’

The NHC reported on early Tuesday that Melissa was about 115 miles from Jamaica’s capital, Kingston, and reaching a maximum wind speed of 175mph. 

 The agency also warned of ‘catastrophic’ winds and flash flooding on the island on Tuesday that could cause lengthy power and communications outages, along with ‘extensive infrastructural damage.’

Up to 40 inches of rainfall is forecast, with flash flooding and landslides also expected in Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Cuba.

A ‘life-threatening’ storm surge is likely along Jamaica’s southern coast, with waters potentially rising 13 feet, along with ‘destructive waves,’ the NHC said.

The Weather Channel’s science editor-in-chief, Dr Matt Sitkowski, said: ‘A weaker, but still powerful Melissa is forecast to cross eastern Cuba late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos would be next, and Melissa is expected to be near Bermuda, still as a hurricane, by Thursday night.’

The NWS has issued hurricane warnings for offshore waters in the southwestern North Atlantic, including the Bahamas, the Caribbean Sea, and approaches to the Windward Passage. 

Southeast to south winds of 17 to 29mph are expected today, with seas four to seven feet high, along with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Tonight, tropical storm conditions are likely, with winds increasing to 23–46 mph in some areas and waves rising to six to nine feet.