Hurricane Erin’s life-threatening path revealed in spaghetti models

A State of Emergency has been declared in parts of North Carolina as Hurricane Erin approaches, bringing life-threatening surf and dangerous rip currents.

Officials in Dare County, home to more than 38,000 residents, ordered mandatory evacuations beginning at 10am ET on Monday. 

Beaches along the Outer Banks could see waves reaching 20 feet starting Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center warned. 

Erin is currently about 951 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, moving northwest at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds have reached 130 mph, making it a major Category 4 hurricane. 

However, it briefly reached Category 5 status on Saturday with the eye about 130 miles east-northeast of Grand Turk Island. 

Richard Pasch of the NHC said: ‘You´re dealing with a major hurricane. The intensity is fluctuating. It´s a dangerous hurricane in any event.’ 

The storm is expected to affect the Tri-State Area from Tuesday through Thursday, particularly along the Jersey Shore and Long Island’s South Shore. 

Coastal communities, including New York City beaches, could face rip currents, high surf with waves up to 12 feet, flooding, beach erosion, and wind gusts of 20 to 40 mph. 

On Sunday, North Carolina officials ordered evacuations for Hatteras Island, including the unincorporated villages of Rodanthe, Waves, Salvo, Avon, Buxton, Frisco and Hatteras. 

‘Now is the time to secure property, finalize plans, and evacuate with belongings,’ officials wrote on Facebook. 

‘Please follow instructions from officials and property managers.’ 

A similar situation is unfolding in nearby Hyde County, where officials declared a State of Emergency for Ocracoke Island in anticipation of flooding. 

Mandatory evacuations began for visitors at 8pm Sunday and are set for residents at 6am Tuesday. 

Donnie Shumate, Hyde County Public Information Officer, said: ‘While Hurricane Erin is expected to stay well off our coast, the system will continue to increase in size and is forecast to bring life-threatening impacts to the Ocracoke coastline and render Highway 12 impassable.’ 

As of around 5am Monday, Erin was about 105 miles north-northeast of Grand Turk Island. 

The NHC said that Hurricane Erin should make a gradual turn toward the north later Monday and into Tuesday. 

The Bahamas government issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the central Bahamas, while a Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeast Bahamas. 

Additional strengthening is forecast for Monday, followed by gradual weakening, though Erin is expected to remain a large, major hurricane into midweek. 

The NHC noted: ‘Even though some weakening is forecast beginning Monday night, Erin will remain a large and dangerous major hurricane through the middle of the week.’ 

Hurricane-force winds extend up to 60 miles from the center, with tropical-storm-force winds reaching outward up to 230 miles. 

The area of strong winds is expected to expand over the next few days, meaning Erin could impact coastal areas even without making a direct landfall. 

Erin’s outer bands drenched parts of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands with heavy rain and tropical-storm–force winds on Sunday. 

The storm knocked out power for roughly 147,000 customers, Luma Energy, the island’s power transmission and distribution company, reported. 

More than 20 flights were canceled due to the severe weather. 

By Sunday evening, the Coast Guard allowed all ports in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands to reopen as conditions improved. Rough seas are forecast across parts of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos. 

Life-threatening surf and dangerous rip currents are expected into midweek for the Bahamas, Bermuda, the US East Coast, and Canada’s Atlantic coast as Erin turns north and then northeast. 

Scientists have linked the rapid intensification of Atlantic hurricanes to climate change. 

Rising global temperatures increase atmospheric moisture and warm ocean waters, providing hurricanes with more fuel to strengthen quickly and produce heavier rainfall.