Nigel Farage described his party’s performance in the English local elections as ‘historic’. It certainly looks like that at first sight.
Reform UK pulverised Labour in its traditional heartlands. It also came second behind Plaid Cymru in Wales and joint-second with Labour in Scotland.
In areas where the Tories constituted the main opposition, Reform crushed them. Nowhere was this more evident than in Essex, once a Conservative fiefdom.
Farage’s party won 53 seats in the county at the expense of the Tories, who lost 39 and were left with a measly 13. Of all the setbacks that Kemi Badenoch’s party suffered on Thursday, this was the most grievous.
Both Labour and the Conservatives now have good reason to fear the insurgent party in their own backyard. If Essex is no longer safe for the Tories, or Sunderland for Labour, nothing is certain.
In fact, in an increasingly fractured political landscape, Reform has more right than any other party to describe itself as national.
Its footprint now stretches from the northernmost reaches of Scotland to the valleys of South Wales, from post-industrial Northern England to rural Suffolk.
Yes, it is an extraordinary performance. Whatever our feelings about Nigel Farage and his party, it would be churlish to deny that a political upheaval has taken place.
Nigel Farage’s (pictured) party Reform UK has picked up more than 1,450 council seats
A 20 per cent share for Kemi Badenoch’s (pictured) party in the next general election has been predicted since the council election results – amounting to 96 seats
And yet if you look beyond Reform’s euphoria, and ignore breathless media coverage, you discover an essential truth. Reform did well but this wasn’t the triumph it may first appear.
The party was easily beaten by Plaid in Wales, and won fewer seats in Scotland than it had hoped. Although victorious in parts of England, it performed poorly in university towns and prosperous urban areas, and sometimes didn’t figure at all.
Extrapolating a general election outcome from a medley of English local election results is tricky, but if anyone can do so with authority it is the veteran psephologist Michael Thrasher.
His projection for Sky News suggests that Reform would win 27 per cent of the national vote in a general election on the basis of what happened on Thursday. This would translate into 284 seats in the Commons, 42 seats short of an overall majority.
The figure of 27 per cent is in line with Reform’s recent polling. Last year the party regularly achieved more than 30 per cent in a succession of polls, which would give it a majority. Such heights have not been reached this year.
No doubt Reform enthusiasts will say that last week’s results will generate momentum, and that there’s no reason to assume that flat-lining is permanent.
They could be right, but what if they aren’t? What if Reform is unable to break through the 30 per cent barrier and win an overall majority? What if – terrifying thought – Labour, the Greens, the Lib-Dems, Plaid and the Scot Nats were then to form a Left-of-centre government?
There is another aspect to the Sky News projections.
Zack Polanski has said that two-party politics ‘dead’ after election gains for Greens
The Tories are widely judged to have suffered a disaster. It’s hard to see how mislaying 563 council seats in England, and the loss of many seats in Scotland and Wales, can be represented in any other way.
Yet on the basis of Thursday’s results, Thrasher projects a 20 per cent share for the Tories in a general election, amounting to 96 seats, not far short of Labour.
Interestingly, 20 per cent is a slight improvement on what Kemi Badenoch’s party achieved in last year’s local elections, and also on its showing in most opinion polls at that time.
If these projections are to be believed, a Reform/Conservative coalition would have a decent majority and easily see off a Left-wing alliance including Zack Polanski’s near lunatic Greens.
These are just figures, of course. A general election could be three years away. But sensible people on the Right should be asking themselves what happens if, as seems likely, Reform fails to win outright.
The answer is that there must be an alliance between Nigel Farage’s party and the Tories. I realise, of course, that leaders on both sides have categorically ruled it out.
Kemi has repeatedly said that no such deal is possible. So has Reform, with the most outspoken critics of coalition often being ex-Tories such as Robert Jenrick, who ruled out the prospect in vituperative terms the other day.
I can see that Kemi and her colleagues regard those who have jumped ship with particular disdain. And I can understand that many members of Reform see their party as the future, and blame the Tories (often rightly) for many of our present ills.
The fact remains that there’s now little to distinguish between the two parties. Kemi has taken the Conservatives dramatically to the Right on welfare, taxes and immigration. She, like Farage, has argued for higher defence spending.
Labour has lost more than 1,460 seats across the country (Pictured: Sir Keir Starmer)
Possibly the Tories have been a little more detailed in their plans to lower taxes. Perhaps Reform are less gung-ho about slashing welfare. Nigel Farage may be a bit more determined to bring down immigration.
It is remarkable how much the two see eye to eye. By contrast, a Left-wing coalition would be riven with differences. Mainstream Labour doesn’t share the Greens’ aspiration to abolish the monarchy and withdraw from Nato.
By the way, Sir Keir Starmer’s appointment of former prime minister Gordon Brown and ex-deputy leader Harriet Harman as advisers is risible. It passes imagination that he could think that these two superannuated relics will save him.
If Kemi and Farage are patriotic, as I believe they are, how could Reform and the Conservatives go to war against each other, thereby enabling the Left to govern for five more years after Labour’s catastrophic rule?
There were plenty of examples on Thursday of Reform depriving the Tories of overall control in councils without winning themselves. It happened in Hampshire, Norfolk and Solihull. Where’s the sense in that?
I realise many in Reform see the Tories as toxic, and associated in the public mind with 14 years of failure. But that is fading and will continue to do so as the far greater incompetence of Labour, and its public divisions, increasingly blot out memories of the Conservatives’ time in office.
The problem is principally one of egos on both sides. Tories see Reform as treacherous interlopers. Reform politicians want to carve out a bright new future for themselves.
An alliance long before an election may not be practicable. But it would be damaging for parties that agree about so much to take chunks out of each other during a campaign.
It would be suicidal not to come to an arrangement after an election to keep out the Left.
In the meantime, let there be less slagging off of each other, and more talking behind the scenes.
Country before party is an old, and much abused, maxim. Kemi and Nigel should embrace it genuinely. A year ago, Reform’s leader joked to me that he might be thrown out of his party if he favoured coalition with the Tories. I think he meant it.
It won’t be easy for him, I know. But it will be the ultimate test of his statesmanship.
Nigel Farage isn’t just a patriot. In his heart he is a Thatcherite Tory, too. Do any of us really believe that he and Kemi will reject a deal if it’s the only way of saving our country?
