Fears of a Russian conflict with NATO are mounting after Vladimir Putin obtained new powers to launch attacks overseas.
The Russian President is poised to tighten his grip on military power with a controversial new law that could pave the way for his troops to be sent abroad under a sweeping new pretext.
Putin stands to gain expanded legal authority to launch overseas operations if legislation, already approved in its first parliamentary reading, completes its passage through Moscow’s rubber-stamp system.
The bill would allow him to deploy forces beyond Russia’s borders ‘in the event, detention or the criminal prosecution’ of Russian citizens.
Though it must still clear two further readings and the upper house, few doubt it will sail through.
The measures are designed to bolster existing laws that already grant Putin wide latitude to use military force in defence of Russia’s interests – a justification he invoked when ordering the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, claiming he was protecting ethnic Russians.
‘Western justice has effectively become an instrument of repression,’ Vyacheslav Volodin, the Russian parliamentary chairman, said.
‘Under these circumstances, it is important to do everything possible to protect our citizens.’ He gave no further details.
The proposed law could, in theory, allow Moscow to dispatch troops to free Russians detained under orders from the International Criminal Court (ICC).
The ICC in 2023 issued arrest warrants for Putin and Kremlin official Maria Lvova-Belova over the forced deportation of thousands of Ukrainian children.
But the implications may stretch far wider.
Western officials fear the legislation could be laying the groundwork for a future military move on NATO’s eastern link – potentially testing the alliance’s Article 5 mutual defence pact.
The bill was co-authored by Deputy Defence Minister Anna Tsivileva, who is also related to Putin.
Despite Russia’s forces remaining heavily tied down in Ukraine, intelligence assessments have repeatedly warned that the Kremlin could target another European country within the next few years.
Putin’s enduring domestic support has long been tied to the narrative, relentlessly amplified by state media, that Russia is under siege from hostile powers intent on exploiting its resources.
The timing of the bill has also raised eyebrows. It was backed by MPs shortly after Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov hinted that Moscow might be willing to halt active fighting in Ukraine if Kyiv ceded the entirety of the eastern Donetsk region.
This is despite the fact that Ukrainian forces still control roughly a fifth of it.
Notably, Peskov made no mention of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, which Putin also claims, triggering fury among hardliners who accused him of being ready to ‘surrender’ territory.
Some analysts believe Estonia, which has been part of the NATO alliance since 2004, could be a potential flashpoint, with Moscow possibly using the presence of a large Russian-speaking population as a pretext for intervention.
The Baltic state regained independence as the Soviet Union collapsed.
Putin, a former KGB officer, has a track record of seeking legal cover for military action.
In 2014, he secured parliamentary approval before sending troops into Ukraine, ultimately annexing Crimea and backing separatists in the east.
Six years later, following an ‘appeal’ from MP and former cosmonaut Valentina Tereshkova, he orchestrated a constitutional overhaul allowing him to remain in power until at least 2036.
The latest legislation may also serve as a warning shot to Western nations targeting Russia’s so-called shadow fleet – ageing oil tankers used to dodge sanctions.
European governments have stepped up efforts to seize such vessels.
‘It seems that the purpose of the document is not to grant Putin additional powers (he has plenty of those), but to intimidate unfriendly countries with possible operations by Russian intelligence services and the military,’ wrote Farida Rustamova, a Russian opposition journalist.
Tensions at sea have already been rising. Sir Keir Starmer revealed last month that British special forces had been authorised to halt and board ships suspected of aiding Russia’s war effort.
Yet, according to reports, a Russian warship recently escorted two sanctioned tankers through the English Channel unchallenged.
Estonia, meanwhile, has pulled back from detaining suspected shadow fleet vessels, citing fears of retaliation.
‘The risk of military escalation is just too high,’ Estonia’s naval chief, Ivo Vark, told Reuters.
In May, the country accused Russia of sending a fighter jet into NATO airspace over the Baltic Sea to shield an unflagged tanker believed to be breaching sanctions, with the aircraft escorting it safely into Russian waters.
Across the Atlantic, the United States has its own controversial legal framework.
A 2002 law, often dubbed the Hague Invasion Act, empowers the US president to deploy troops to rescue American personnel detained by international courts such as the ICC, whose authority Washington does not recognise.
