Europe is speeding up a fallback plan for Nato in case Washington pulls out of the alliance as anxiety grows over America’s reliability.
Officials working on the plans, dubbed ‘European Nato’, are reportedly attempting to supplement US military assets with European ones.
The plans, drawn up last year, are also seeking to place Europeans in Nato’s command-and-control roles, the Wall Street Journal reports.
Those involved have stressed that it is not intended to rival the current alliance, but rather preserve deterrence against Putin, nuclear credibility and operational continuity even if the US withdraws forces from Europe.
Last week, it was revealed that Donald Trump was considering punishing members of Nato that he believes were unhelpful to the US and Israel in the war against Iran by pulling American troops out of the country’s bases.
The proposal would involve moving troops out from North Atlantic Treaty Organisation member countries deemed uncooperative with the military campaign, and transferring them to nations who are more supportive of Washington.
Trump has in recent weeks repeatedly threatened to withdraw America from the 32-member alliance, after several Nato countries rejected his calls to help reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas flows.
The President’s belief that the nations didn’t do enough to help the US during Operation Epic Fury is threatening to tear apart the trans-Atlantic alliance, creating what is perhaps the greatest challenge it has faced in its history.
Washington has around 84,000 soldiers stationed across Europe, with US bases serving as a critical hub of global military operations, as well as providing an economic boost to the host country through investment.
Bases stationed in Eastern Europe also serve as a deterrent against Moscow.
So while the US remains critical to Nato’s military command, intelligence, and logistics, Europe is actively working to take on a greater share of these responsibilities.
At the Munich Security Conference in February, Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte said: ‘Over the coming years we will more and more see a NATO that is more European-led.’
And now amid the Iran conflict, Europe is racing to bolster its side of the alliance following Trump’s dismissal of Nato as a ‘paper tiger’ and his branding of EU allies as ‘cowards.’
‘A burden shifting from the US toward Europe is ongoing and it will continue…as part of US defense and national security strategy,’ said Finland’s president, Alexander Stubb, one of the leaders involved in the plans.
He added: ‘The most important thing is to understand that it’s taking place and also to do it in a very managed and controllable way, instead of [the US] just quickly pulling out.’
The Finnish leader called Trump after the US threatened to withdraw from the alliance to brief him on Europe’s plans to take more responsibility for its own security and defence.
Europe’s political acceleration was driven by a pivotal change in German policy, breaking its long-standing dependence on the US nuclear umbrella.
This marks a shift away from the previous fear that taking a greater leadership role in Nato would encourage a reduction in American security commitments.
However last year, Chancellor Friedrich Merz began to question that view after Trump appeared ready to abandon Ukraine, sparking worries that the US no longer had clear values guiding its policy within Nato, sources say.
People familiar with the issue have said Merz didn’t want to publicly question the alliance, but rather push Europe to take on a bigger role and assume the bulk of the defence.
Officials involved have said other European countries including the UK, France, Sweden and Poland are also in agreement.
Sweden’s ambassador to Germany, Veronika Wand-Danielsson said: ‘We are taking precautions and having informal talks with a group of like-minded allies, and will contribute to fill the gap within Nato when so required.’
One aspect critical to the plan’s success, according to officials, is reintroducing the military draft.
Finnish president Stubb, whose country retained the draft abandoned by most after the Cold War, said: ‘I’m not going to give advice to any European countries, but in terms of civic education, national identity and national unity, there is probably nothing better than compulsory military service.’
Meanwhile, officials are seeking to boost European production of critical defense equipment such as reconnaissance, space technology, air mobility, and anti-submarine tools, where the continent lags behind the US.
A prime example of this initiative is the recent UK-Germany collaboration on stealth cruise missiles and hypersonic weapons.
There is no denying, however, that the US has long been Nato’s backbone. In 2025, the combined military spending of Nato states reached approximately 1.5 trillion dollars, with the US alone accounting for over 900 billion dollars of that total.
Nato members were previously expected to spend at least 2 per cent of GDP on defence, a number Trump had long argued should be higher, leading to a new 5 per cent target by 2035 being agreed upon at last year’s Nato Summit.
In 2024, the US spent around 3.38 per cent of GDP on defence, trumped only by Estonia who spent 3.43 per cent and Poland’s 4.12 per cent.
In military power, Nato as a whole dominates Russia. As of 2025, the alliance had around 3.5 million active military personnel compared with Russia’s 1.32 million.
Nato countries collectively have more than 22,000 aircrafts compared to Russia’s 4,292, as well as 1,143 military ships compared with their 400.
Meanwhile, the combined nuclear arsenal of the US, UK, and France is slightly lower, amounting to 5,692 nuclear warheads, compared with Russia’s 5,600.
On the whole, Europe without the US would not be defenceless. Several European Nato countries have weapons that rival or exceed Russian equivalents.
While Russia operates a single aging aircraft carrier, the UK commands two modern carriers capable of launching F-35B stealth fighters.
France, Italy and Spain also operate aircraft carriers or amphibious ships capable of launching combat aircraft.
France and the UK maintain independent nuclear deterrents, and European Nato members collectively operate around 2,000 fighter and ground attack jets, including dozens of F-35s.
Yet military experts argue that what Europe lacks is not manpower or hardware alone, but the strategic enablers that allow modern wars to be fought and sustained.
A Europeanization of Nato ‘should have come before now,’ retired US Admiral James Foggo told the WSJ.
He said although the have the ‘capability’ and ‘hardware,’ they need to invest and develop capabilities faster.
The shift is already happening, with Europeans taking over more top Nato command roles and leading major upcoming exercises, particularly along the Russian border in the Nordic region.
However, a significant gap remains in nuclear deterrence and intelligence.
European officials acknowledge that troop adjustments cannot immediately replace the US satellite, surveillance, and missile-warning systems that ensure Nato’s credibility, putting pressure on France and Britain to enhance their strategic and nuclear capabilities.
