Summer holidays are just around the corner but anyone browsing for plane tickets may be in for a nasty shock.
The cost of flying has jumped over the past month amid the growing oil crisis in the Middle East thanks to the Iran war.
The average price of a barrel of jet fuel has soared by 104pc since February and Europe’s supplies are drying up, with Britain’s last shipment of jet fuel from the Middle East due to arrive tomorrow. There are fears there could be shortages within a week.
Airline bosses have warned that they could pass on increased fuel costs to families looking to get away this summer if the conflict drags on.
Air fares are also being pushed higher as a result of travel disruptions at major international airports in Doha and Dubai.
But there are still a few holiday hotspots you can fly to for a bargain and that have been untouched by soaring costs – so far. Experts now tell Money Mail that any would-be travellers should act quickly if they want to secure a good deal before airlines burn through their stock of fuel. Once their current reserves have been used, airlines will have to begin to buy jet fuel at jacked-up prices.
‘Safe’ destinations are set to soar
Most countries in the Middle East will be off limits for casual travel this spring, according to official Foreign Office advice. But popular destinations around the area have also dwindled in popularity.
For example, searches and bookings for holidays to Cyprus and even Greece have plummeted, as holidaymakers instead choose ‘safer’ destinations further away from the conflict zone.
Holidaymakers will instead flock to spots such as Portugal and Spain this summer. However, this will send flight prices to these locations higher.
Laura Lindsay, of comparison website Skyscanner, explains that the price of tickets is always based on the demand for the flight route and the number of seats available.
If demand for ‘safer’ hotspots goes up and the number of available tickets dwindles, then the airlines will hike prices to rake in more money.
Alistair McLean, of travel agent Dorking Travel, says: ‘It’s inevitably going to happen.
‘If everyone decides not to go to Turkey and instead wants to go to Spain, then the airlines will add a premium.’
Overall, flights from the UK to all European destinations are still level with last year’s prices, according to comparison website Kayak. This is based on an average of economy fares shown to customers between March 1 and 22 for flights within 120 days, compared with the same dates in 2025.
But tickets to long-haul destinations such as America have increased by as much as 15 pc.
Fares naturally change month to month depending on the time of year.
But comparing this year’s fares to the same period last year gives a clearer picture of how the conflict may be impacting on prices.
Quotes for return tickets to Central American spots such as Guatemala and Costa Rica on Kayak have increased by 15 pc to £790 from £687 last year. Return tickets to South America cost 9 pc more, at £976 on average.
Flights to the Caribbean, a popular family destination, rose 4 pc, climbing to £809 return.
John Morphet, owner of luxury resort Royal Westmoreland, has seen inquiries surge by 25 pc in the last few weeks for its Barbados villas. He expects this spike to continue.
Direct flights at a premium
Crucial connection hubs for international travel in the Middle East – such as Dubai – are running reduced flights amid the conflict. It means families have fewer flight options when flying to long-haul destinations, which in turn will push up fares.
Tim Potter, who runs a travel agency in Bristol, says: ‘If you’re travelling to Asia or Africa, the big connection hubs are in the Middle East.
‘We are instead booking people on direct flights or through other hubs at the moment.
‘But these flights – especially to destinations like Malaysia, Australia and New Zealand – are selling out quicker. There’s only a limited number of direct flights to the Maldives, for example.’
Flights to the Maldives – both direct and indirect – have jumped 32 pc year on year, to £1,218 for a return flight, Kayak says.
The price of flights to New Zealand has soared 20 pc to £1,651 when compared with 2025, while those to Singapore are up 23 pc at £824.
Fuel costs to go ‘through the roof’
The Middle East is a major supplier of jet fuel but the Strait of Hormuz – a vital passage for around one fifth of the world’s oil supply – is effectively blocked as it is largely under Iran’s control.
The supply of aviation fuel has been squeezed since the blockage, which has caused a metric tonne of jet fuel (the standard measurement) to climb to $1,710, more than double its $742 cost a year ago.
In the first week of the war, the average price of jet fuel soared by more than 58 pc. Unless this falls in the coming months, airlines will eventually pass on this surcharge to their passengers.
Travel agents are yet to see fuel prices drive fares higher but they warn it’s just a matter of time.
Low-cost airlines shouldn’t be affected immediately. They hedge fuel costs and so won’t yet be paying the highest rates to buy fuel. Ms Lindsay adds: ‘Fuel is a significant element of an airline’s cost base. In the short term, many airlines will have hedged costs.’
Airlines minimise the risk of rising fuel prices by locking in a fee for at least some of their supply ahead of time. So while fuel is soaring in price, airlines are still working through the ‘hedged’ fuel that they secured the price of a year or two ago. It means air fares could soar when these airlines use up their hedged fuel later in the year and next year. Then they would be forced to use the more expensive fuel bought when prices rose.
Some airlines, however, are remaining optimistic. Budget airline Ryanair has paused fuel hedging in the hope that prices tumble in the coming months. This means they are not currently buying fuel for the future.
Meanwhile, British Airways has said it does not plan to increase fares yet.
Overseas, the hikes have already started via fuel surcharges (additional fees added to the base price of a ticket).
For instance, Cathay Pacific is increasing its fuel surcharge today from the $149 customers paid last month to $200.
American company United Airlines chief executive Scott Kirby has claimed its airfares could climb by 20 pc.
Book your 2027 trip now
Holidaymakers who were looking to book a July trip abroad may wonder if they should wait for prices to plummet before securing a ticket. But experts are warning them to lock in a price now before fares climb further.
If the war continues, airlines may continue adding premiums to ‘safe’ hotspots as these places surge in popularity.
But families may still be able to book tickets before the fuel price hike filters down into fares.
Mr McLean, of Dorking Travel, adds: ‘The airlines are buying fuel this year for 2027, so prices will go through the roof.’
Travel agents are urging those who want to go on a trip this year or next to book it sooner rather than later. Mags Jordan, of Travel By Mags, says: ‘Secure your bookings now. As time goes on, the fares could be high. Take a South Africa holiday I have been arranging on behalf of a family for next year. They didn’t book because of the conflict. Since then, the cost has gone up 5 pc.’
