Brits might be used to terrible weather, but scientists now warn there is another type of storm we should be worried about.
A terrifying report has laid bare exactly what would happen if a solar superstorm hit the UK.
In Britain’s worst–case scenario, an eruption of charged particles from the sun will smash into the atmosphere, triggering electrical blackouts and widespread disruption.
From the satellites that power GPS services to the sensitive electronics inside nuclear power stations, almost every type of electronic system would be at risk.
The chilling study even warns that a devastating storm could trigger ‘extreme behaviour amongst cult members’.
The researchers behind the ‘Summary of Space Weather Worst–Case Environments’ report warn that a storm on this scale is a ‘one in 100 years’ event.
That doesn’t mean it will happen once every 100 years, but it does suggest that Britain may need to be ready to face its worst–case scenario at any time.
Co–author Professor Richard Horne, of the British Antarctic Survey, told the Daily Mail: ‘Space weather is really uncertain because one–in–100 events don’t come around all that often. We’re trying to point out what some of the risks are so that people will take action.’
Cascading power blackouts spreading across entire regions
Professor Horne told the Daily Mail: ‘The thing I’d be most concerned about is the power grid.’
As charged plasma collides with Earth, it interacts with the planet’s own magnetic fields, essentially causing it to ‘rattle’.
When this ‘geomagnetic storm’ is strong enough, it can induce electrical currents in any long stretches of metal on the surface – including the high–voltage wires that make up the grid.
The report warns that this would trigger safety switches in transformer stations, leading to cascading blackouts that would plunge the country into darkness.
Professor Horne says: ‘We don’t think there will be national loss of power, but we do expect some regional blackouts.’
A true worst–case–scenario storm could even damage or destroy transformers by igniting their insulation.
The researchers warn that it could take months to replace a transformer, even if a spare is available elsewhere in the country, with even longer power outages possible if supplies run short.
Even if the UK can get the lights back on quickly, the damage to the UK’s grid could lead to decreased power capacity that would last months if not years after the storm.
Signal failures causing deadly train collisions
Unfortunately for us, power lines aren’t the only long pieces of metal that would experience massive power surges during the superstorm.
The rattling magnetic field also generates currents in train tracks that could be strong enough to interfere with the electronics in so–called ‘track circuits’.
Normally, the presence of a train on a section of track creates a change in the flow of electricity that the track circuit can use to work out where the train is.
If there is a strong enough solar storm, the resulting fields might ‘right side’ and ‘wrong side’ errors – either telling the circuit there is a train where there isn’t one, or saying there is no train where one is really coming down the track.
These are not only disruptive but potentially deadly as they can lead to train collisions.
In their report, the researchers write: ‘A 1–in–100 year or 1–in–200 year extreme storm would lead to multiple right– and wrong–side signalling failures.’
Damage to the sensitive electronics controlling nuclear power stations
Besides CMEs, the sun can also hit the Earth with a wave of charged particles that blast through the atmosphere.
Since these particles move at the speed of light, we would have no warning before the planet was rocked by their arrival.
Countries at higher latitudes, where there is less natural shielding from the magnetic field, are particularly at risk of being bombarded by high–energy neutrons.
‘High–energy neutrons can penetrate through a whole load of stuff and cause problems for electronics’ says Professor Horne.
In a truly disastrous one–in–1,000–year storm, surface radiation levels could be 1,000 times higher than normal in London and up to 5,000 times higher in Scotland.
This comes with a ‘greatly enhanced’ risk of electrical systems making unexpected errors, with serious potential for damage and burnout in some devices.
Worryingly, the authors note that this includes ‘electronic control systems used in the nuclear power sector’.
However, just how big that disruption could be is something that still needs further investigation.
‘We think that this is a risk that needs to be looked at, but to understand how big a risk that is would mean working with the power agencies because they know their instruments much better than we do,’ says Professor Horne.
Satellites falling out of orbit and colliding with clouds of space debris
Professor Horne says: ‘Space is really congested, but the trouble comes when you have a big space weather event.’
As the CME arrives, the wave of charged particles would smash through satellites in low–Earth orbit, damaging electronics and degrading solar panels.
In the best case, this would shorten the lifespan of satellites by years, but the most severe storms could cause entire satellites to fail for good.
However, the researchers also highlight the dangers of solar flares, another type of space weather that involves massive bursts of X–ray radiation.
When this radiation hits Earth, it causes the upper layers of the atmosphere to swell and expand.
‘You’ve got a satellite flying on its normal orbit, and all of a sudden the atmosphere’s gotten a bit thicker, that means it starts to drop,’ says Professor Horne.
During the ‘Halloween Storm’ in October 2023, a massive solar flare created so much drag that the International Space Station fell 200 metres in a single day.
In 2022, extreme solar activity led 40 Starlink satellites to re–enter the atmosphere after launching during a solar flare.
Satellite operators can adjust for this, but there’s no way to do the same for the roughly two million pieces of space debris.
Whizzing around the world at about seven kilometres per second, even a small piece of debris can cause severe damage to a satellite in orbit.
Professor Horne says: ‘The problem is when you have a large storm, it changes the orbits of the satellites and space debris and that enhances the risk [of a collision].
This would be a major problem for the world’s navigation systems that rely on satellites to calculate precise locations, with surprisingly far–reaching consequences.
During a particularly heightened period of solar activity in May 2024, a loss of satellite navigation cost the US agriculture industry $500 billion dollars after tracking systems on farm equipment failed.
Travel chaos during days-long radio blackouts
Solar flares also produce their own radio waves, which can ‘drown out’ the radio signals used by Earth–based systems.
This would likely be a short–term effect, mainly affecting weak radio systems like radar and global navigation systems.
A geomagnetic storm would have a more pronounced effect.
Many radio signals travel around the world by bouncing off a part of the atmosphere called the ionosphere.
However, geomagnetic storms fill this region with electrical charges, making it unusable for radio communication.
This would likely cause several days of blackouts for ‘Ultra–High Frequency’ (UHF) and ‘Very–High Frequency’ (VHF) ranges.
Although that won’t affect your mobile phone, it will block out the signals used by ships and aeroplanes, leading to travel chaos and grounded flights.
Civil unrest – with ‘extreme’ action from conspiracy theorists
However, the arrival of such a devastating storm won’t just affect the world’s technological systems.
The researchers warn that a worst–case scenario would also see widespread social disruption.
Co–author Professor John Preston, a sociologist from the University of Essex, told the Daily Mail: ‘Negative social outcomes arising from a severe solar storm could include power cuts, internet outages, disruption to transport networks, services, and supplies at supermarkets.
‘This would lead to negative social outcomes, particularly amongst the poorest in society who have low food stocks and access to alternatives.’
Although Professor Preston says that violent unrest or civil disobedience is unlikely, some groups could be driven into ‘extreme’ action.
This could be triggered by the rapid spread of conspiracy theories and misinformation, or by a surge in doomsday or ‘Millenarian’ beliefs.
‘We know that certain cults look at solar and space events as an indicator of the end of the world,’ says Professor Preston.
‘In 1997, Heaven’s Gate, a millenarist cult, thought that the world was ending, and that the comet Hale–Bopp was an alien spaceship that would transport their souls to a higher plane of existence. Thirty–nine members of the cult committed suicide.
‘Today, there are many cults with similar beliefs about space and solar based events.
‘It is very hard to predict, but solar events can, in the worst case, lead to extreme behaviour amongst cult members with Millenarian beliefs.’
WHAT IS THE SOLAR CYCLE?
The Sun is a huge ball of electrically-charged hot gas that moves, generating a powerful magnetic field.
This magnetic field goes through a cycle, called the solar cycle.
Every 11 years or so, the Sun’s magnetic field completely flips, meaning the sun’s north and south poles switch places.
The solar cycle affects activity on the surface of the Sun, such as sunspots which are caused by the Sun’s magnetic fields.
One way to track the solar cycle is by counting the number of sunspots.
The beginning of a solar cycle is a solar minimum, or when the Sun has the least sunspots. Over time, solar activity – and the number of sunspots – increases.
The middle of the solar cycle is the solar maximum, or when the Sun has the most sunspots.
As the cycle ends, it fades back to the solar minimum and then a new cycle begins.
Giant eruptions on the Sun, such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections, also increase during the solar cycle.
These eruptions send powerful bursts of energy and material into space that can have effects on Earth.
For example, eruptions can cause lights in the sky, called aurora, or impact radio communications and electricity grids on Earth.
