Reform could need an alliance with the Tories to govern as British politics fragments, according to a major poll.
New research by Electoral Calculus underlines the potential for chaos, with no single party close to getting a majority if an election was held now.
The seat-by-seat estimates – produced on behalf of communications agency PLMR and based on Find Out Now surveys – suggests Nigel Farage would have the most MPs, with 188.
But the Conservatives would not be too far behind on 159, while Labour faces an extraordinary collapse from more than 400 to just 86.
The Greens were seen as picking up 71 constituencies, with an astonishing sweep of red strongholds in London – including Keir Starmer’s own Holborn & St Pancras seat.
The Lib Dems would get 61 MPs, the SNP 44, and Plaid Cymru 17. Even with independents and support from Northern Ireland parties a ‘rainbow coalition’ would struggle to win votes in the House. A majority is technically 326 of the 650 MPs, although Governments can survive with fewer.
A hung Parliament with such a wide split of support between parties is without precedent in modern British politics.
The research uses the ‘MRP’ technique of mapping poll findings on to the demographic characteristics of individual areas.
It also accounts for tactical voting, which the team believes will reduce Reform’s performance as opponents are ready to back whoever is most likely to keep them out in their constituency.
Reform could need an alliance with the Tories to govern as British politics fragments, according to the poll
The Conservatives (led by Kemi Badenoch, pictured) would not be far behind Reform on 159 MPs, while Labour faces an extraordinary collapse from more than 400 to just 86
The Find Out Now polling, of 5,559 people between March 27 and April 7, suggests Reform had the highest national support at 24 per cent.
But that was down from the party’s recent peak – after it was projected to secure 335 seats in January. The Conservatives had recovered to 21 per cent, with Labour on 17 per cent.
Kevin Craig, the head of PLMR, said: ‘When it comes to pinpointing who voters want making decisions on their behalf, it is clear that Reform UK do not have the trust of the public.
‘Reform’s momentum appears to be slowing, which points towards a more competitive environment and the likelihood of a hung parliament. The message right now looking ahead to the General Election is that it is all up for grabs.
‘PLMR’s latest polling also highlights a critical challenge ahead of the local elections – many voters simply don’t know who is running their local council. When fewer than half can correctly identify who is in charge, it becomes much harder for parties to rely on their local record to win support.
‘For the Government, the priority now is to rebuild that connection with voters, showing clearly how decisions taken nationally and locally are making a difference to people’s everyday lives. Demonstrating progress on the issues that matter most will be key to winning back support in what is becoming an increasingly competitive political landscape.’
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Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: ‘Reform remains the largest party, but is noticeably less popular than at its peak last year, with its national support sliding back to where it was at the start of 2025.
‘Nigel Farage now faces the challenge of holding on to some voters drifting back to the Conservatives on his left and others possibly shifting towards Restore Britain as a new right-wing alternative.
‘If fragmentation on the right increases, Reform could face similar challenges to those Labour has experienced due to the vote splitting on the left.’
