Andy Farrell is banking on players with outstanding pedigree really stepping up for the Lions in their series opener against Australia – because his likely line-up is not awash with form picks.
The visitors are set to rely on a side full of stellar reputations, but in several positions the players who have performed best are expected to miss out. That is certainly the case at No 8, where Ben Earl has made more of an impact than Jack Conan, but the Irish specialist is preferred.
There are various other examples, as the head coach is following the example of so many predecessors by trusting in players he knows best. James Lowe has been operating far below his usual, exalted standards on the left wing, but he is due to make the cut in the starting XV, partly due to the injury setbacks which have hampered back-three contenders Blair Kinghorn and Mack Hansen.
At scrum-half, Jamison Gibson-Park is another member of the dominant Leinster and Ireland contingent who will be deployed en masse, in the belief that he will soar to a performance peak when needed. Somehow, he was named Man of the Match in the win against the Brumbies in Canberra, but he had blown hot and cold in an unconvincing win in the Australian capital. Frankly, he has been eclipsed by stellar displays from Alex Mitchell and Ben White, but he is a Farrell favourite.
The pattern continues up front. Tom Curry has not reached his own familiar heights, but he will start at openside ahead of Jac Morgan, who has played the house down and been the Lions’ pre-eminent jackal threat on the tour to date.
To complete the back-row doubts, Tadhg Beirne is seemingly set to start at blindside rather than Ollie Chessum, despite playing his best lately in the second row. Even the great Tadhg Furlong has just about located second gear – he is certainly not at full tilt.
But there are pockets of form. Ellis Genge and Dan Sheehan are on a thunderous roll in the front row. At lock, Maro Itoje and Joe McCarthy have both stood out with towering exploits. Finn Russell is in supreme form, as are Tommy Freeman and Huw Jones.
It is good to see common-sense should prevail as Jones is set to be unleashed alongside Scotland midfield partner Sione Tuipulotu. It makes perfect sense to tap into the established chemistry between those two and Russell.
So, all in all, this is not a form XV of Lions all going into the Test series with unstoppable momentum, far from it. There is an uneasy, fingers-crossed feeling about some of the marginal selections, but even allowing for the misgivings, this potential line-up should have far too much firepower for the vulnerable Australians.
