With two matches of the eight league phase ties played, the stats boffins at Opta have predicted a new side to claim the ultimate prize in Europe at the end of the season.
Ahead of the start of the European campaign, Daily Mail Sport reported how Premier League champions Liverpool were the runaway favourites to lift the trophy in Budapest next year.
After running 1,000 simulations, Arne Slot’s side were given a 20.4 per cent chance of lifting the trophy a seventh time, with a whopping 34 per cent chance of reaching the final itself.
But since proceedings kicked off last month, the Reds’ progression in the league phase has been far from processional.
After claiming an opening match win against Atletico Madrid courtesy of the latest of winners – much to the ire of head coach Diego Simeone – Liverpool faltered in Turkey, ending their travails at Galatasaray 1-0 down on Tuesday evening.
Virgil van Dijk and Co weren’t the only Premier League side that struggled in Europe this gameweek, with Manchester City also being thwarted at the last in Monaco as former Tottenham star Eric Dier scored the equaliser to pin Pep Guardiola’s team back on the road.
But one English outfit did enjoy a profitable time in European competition – and their fine start in the tournament has boosted their chances of success immeasurably, as per Opta’s predictions.
Arsenal are now the favourites to claim victory at the Puskas Arena next May, with the side now having a 18.09 per cent chance of success in Hungary, and a 31.64 per cent chance of reaching the final.
Mikel Arteta’s man despatched Olympiacos 2-0 on Wednesday evening, two weeks on from beginning their campaign with a 2-0 win against Athletic Club in Bilbao.
As such, the team have knocked their Premier League rivals Liverpool back down the pecking order by one place, with the Merseyside club now second-favourites with a 14.70 per cent chance.
Last year’s winners Paris Saint-Germain, Man City, and Bayern Munich round out the top five of the club’s most likely to win another European title, with the Parisians’ chances rated at 13.96 per cent, and City and Bayern’s chances at 9.71 per cent and 9.50 per cent respectively.
All five teams are, of course, expected to gain the required points total needed for automatic qualification into the round-of-16, with Arsenal predicted to win a hefty 18.51 points.
Serial European champions Real Madrid are also expected to qualify automatically, along with their loathed rivals Barcelona.
But one Premier League side who might have hoped for automatic qualification might instead have to toil in the play-off places, with two of their rivals.
As per the statisticians, Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea will come achingly close to securing an automatic spot, but finish the league phase in ninth place – one spot away from security.
The Blues are predicted to receive 13.87 points, after a challenging opening fixture against Bayern Munich saw them start on the wrong foot with a 3-1 defeat.
Chelsea were back to winning ways on Tuesday after beating Benfica, and will hope to benefit from Ajax’s European troubles when they meet the second-lowest placed side at the end of the month.
At present, all of the Premier League sides in the competition will at least get a chance of making the knockout rounds, with Tottenham expected to finish 11th in the table with a predicted 13.25 points, and Newcastle two places behind them on 12.93 points.
However, their chances of making the round of 16 remain on the stronger side, with Chelsea having a 37.13 per cent chance of making the business end of the competition.
Newcastle and Spurs’ chances sit in a similar position, with the former having a 28.96 per cent chance, and the latter a 28.52 per cent chance.
