The average Brit may never reach 100 years of age, experts warn

Living to 100 really is a significant achievement.

But it’s unlikely this milestone will become commonplace anytime soon, according to a new study.

Despite unprecedented increases in the last century, life expectancy is stalling, experts say.

And no current generations will come anywhere close to becoming centenarians, on average, unless there is a ‘major breakthrough’ in human longevity.

Researchers analysed data for 23 high–income countries and found that since the start of the 20th century, life expectancy has risen from 62 to around 80.

But the gains made in the first half of the century have slowed significantly – with no indication they will increase to 100 in the foreseeable future.

Between 1900 to 1938, life expectancy rose by about 5.5 months with each new generation, they found.

But since then the increase has slowed to roughly 2.5 to 3.5 months per generation – and is expected to continue to level off.

The main driver for the initial increase was down to remarkable improvements in survival at young ages, the team said.

However, infant and child mortality is now so low that the forecasted improvements in health for older age groups will not be enough to sustain previous gains in life expectancy.

Author José Andrade, from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, said: ‘We forecast that those born in 1980 will not live to be 100 on average, and none of the cohorts in our study will reach this milestone.

‘This decline is largely due to the fact that past surges in longevity were driven by remarkable improvements in survival at very young ages.’

Co–author Héctor Pifarré i Arolas, from the University of Wisconsin–Madison, added: ‘The unprecedented increase in life expectancy we achieved in the first half of the 20th century appears to be a phenomenon we are unlikely to achieve again in the foreseeable future.

‘In the absence of any major breakthroughs that significantly extend human life, life expectancy would still not match the rapid increases seen in the early 20th century even if adult survival improved twice as fast as we predict.’

Writing in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, they said: ‘Forecasting exercises are inherently uncertain, and there is no guarantee that mortality trends will remain uninterrupted.

‘Unpredictable events – such as epidemics or medical breakthroughs – can cause mortality to deviate significantly from forecasted trends.’

Official statistics suggest that boys born in the UK in 2023 can expect to live on average to the age of 86.7, and girls to 90.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) says figures show a continued trend of longer life expectancy for men and women with the survival gap between the sexes narrowing – partly down to men leading healthier lifestyles.

Projections suggest more than one in 10 boys and one in six girls born in 2023 will live to at least 100 years old.

The ONS report is based on the most up–to–date survival figures for 2023 and makes predictions for the future based on trends and projections.

For example, one in four baby girls and nearly one in five baby boys born in 2047 might expect to live to 100.

Overall, men born in 2047 could have a life expectancy of 89.3 years, and women 92.2 years.

The estimates could change though, and the life expectancy figures are for populations – they do not mean that each individual person will live into old age.