A quarter of FIFA World Cup matches will be in unbearable heat,
If you’ve managed to bag tickets to the FIFA World Cup, a new study might raise alarm bells for you.
Researchers have warned that players and fans will be subject to unbearable heat during many of the games.
In the study, experts from World Weather Attribution modelled the conditions during every one of the 104 matches.
Their results suggest that a quarter of the matches will be played in unsafe conditions, while five be so hot that experts advise postponing them entirely.
Worryingly, many of these matches are scheduled in venues without air conditioning – including Miami, Kansas City, New York, and Philadelphia.
Unfortunately for some British fans, this includes Scotland’s clash with Brazil, which is scheduled to take place in Miami on 24 June.
‘The climate that the tournament is being played in today has fundamentally shifted in just 32 years,’ warned Dr Joyce Kimutai, an author of the study from Imperial College London.
‘While organisers have attempted to reduce the risk by scheduling some games in high–risk – uncooled – locations like Miami and Kansas City later in the day, there’s a very real risk that we’ll be faced with games taking place in conditions that are unsafe for players and fans.’
In the study, experts from World Weather Attribution modelled the conditions during every one of the 104 matches. Their results suggest that a quarter of the matches will be played in unsafe conditions, while five be so hot that experts advise postponing them entirely
Players and fans will be subject to unbearable heat during many of the games. Pictured: the New York New Jersey Stadium
The FIFA World Cup is just a matter of weeks away now, with matches set to be held in Canada, Mexico, and the US from 11 June to 19 July.
Ahead of the tournament, the researchers set out to understand the heat danger players and fans will face.
Rather than focusing on air temperature, the researchers used the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) – an index that considers how effectively the body can cool itself.
Dr Chris Mullington, study co–author, explained: ‘A 30°C day in dry, breezy conditions is very different from a 30°C day with high humidity, strong sun and little wind.
‘High humidity reduces the evaporation of sweat, limiting the body’s primary cooling mechanism.
‘That is why wet bulb globe temperature, or WBGT, is so important.’
According to their analysis, a quarter of all games will be played when conditions exceed 26°C WBGT.
At this level, FIFPRO (the global players’ union) advises safety measures like cooling must be implemented.
While three of the 16 venues have cooling measures in place, over a third of the games with at least a one in 10 chance of exceeding 26°C WBGT are scheduled in venues without air conditioning
| Date/time (ET) | Location | Teams | Chance of 26°C WBGT | Chance of 28°C WBGT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 June – 15:00 | New York/New Jersey | France v Senegal | 1 in 8 | 1 in 37 |
| 16 June – 21:00 | Kansas City | Argentina vs Algeria | 1 in 7 | 1 in 33 |
| 24 June – 18:00 | Miami | Scotland vs Brazil | near certain | 1 in 66 |
| 25 June – 19:00 | Kansas City | Tunisia v Netherlands | 1 in 4 | 1 in 14 |
| 3 July – 18:00 | Miami | Group J Winner v Group H Runner Up | near certain | 1 in 66 |
| 11 July – 17:00 | Miami | Quarter Final | near certain | 1 in 33 |
| 19 July – 15:00 | New York/New Jersey | Final | 1 in 8 | 1 in 37 |
Meanwhile, five games are expected to occur when the WBGT is above 28°C, which is the equivalent of about 38°C in dry heat, or 30°C in high humidity.
This is a level that FIFPRO considers to be unsafe for play and advises postponement.
Dr Mullington explained: ‘When WBGT exceeds 26°C, player performance can suffer. Above 28°C, the risk of serious heat illness becomes more concerning – not only for players, but also for the hundreds of thousands of fans in stadiums and outdoor fan festivals.
‘Heat stroke, the most severe form of heat illness, is life–threatening, and older people and those with pre–existing medical conditions are particularly vulnerable.’
While three of the 16 venues have cooling measures in place, over a third of the games with at least a one in 10 chance of exceeding 26°C WBGT are scheduled in venues without air conditioning.
This includes the final in the New York New Jersey Stadium, which now faces a one in eight chance of exceeding the 26°C WBGT mark and a three per cent chance of hitting the more dangerous level of 28°C WBGT.
For context, that’s around double the risk the final would have faced in 1994.
What’s more, with all 16 host cities staging open–air ‘Fan Festivals’, hundreds of thousands of supporters could face unprecedented heat, even if the stadiums themselves are cooled.
The final in the New York New Jersey Stadium now faces a one in eight chance of exceeding the 26°C WBGT mark and a three per cent chance of hitting the more dangerous level of 28°C WBGT. For context, that’s around double the risk the final would have faced in 1994
The researchers blame human–induced climate change for the conditions – and hope the findings will spark urgent action to reduce global warming.
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Dr Friederike Otto, co–author of the study, added: ‘Our research shows that climate change is having a real and measurable impact on the viability of holding World Cups during the northern hemisphere summer.
‘The 1994 World Cup may not feel particularly distant to many adults today, yet half of human–induced climate change has happened since then.
‘That the World Cup Final itself – one of the biggest sporting occasions on the planet – faces a non–insignificant risk of being played in “cancellation–level” heat should be a wake–up call for FIFA and fans, highlighting the urgent need to realise that there is no aspect of society not affected by climate change.’
