A few hours after Keir Starmer’s ‘reset speech’, I spoke to a Cabinet minister steadfastly loyal to the Prime Minister.
Would they be making an intervention to back him, I asked. ‘No,’ they replied. Would others in the Cabinet be doing so, in the co-ordinated manner in which they did when he was on the brink in March? ‘No, Downing Street hasn’t asked us to.’
Was it true, as I’d just been told, that other ministers had reached breaking point and would tell the Prime Minister at today’s Cabinet meeting that it was time to set out a process for his departure for office? ‘If it’s OK, I’ll keep my counsel’, they said quietly.
I spoke to another Cabinet minister about rumours Starmer would be told to go today. ‘Lots of colleagues are at the end of their tether,’ they told me.
I spoke to a senior member of a different leadership team. ‘Yes, that’s the plan,’ they told me, ‘to tell him he’s got to go at Cabinet.’
Over the past few days, the campaign to remove the Prime Minister from office has seemed disorganised and chaotic. But yesterday it finally clicked into gear.
It began soon after Starmer sat down from delivering his latest ‘make-or-break address’. Three minutes after he’d left the podium, a Cabinet minister messaged.
‘It wasn’t radical enough,’ they said despairingly. ‘He’s got nothing left to say.’
I spoke to another Cabinet minister about rumours Starmer would be told to go today. ‘Lots of colleagues are at the end of their tether,’ they told me
The speech had been billed as the Prime Minister’s last opportunity to save himself. But in reality, his fate had already been sealed. Effectively, the various leadership challengers had decided to give Starmer enough rope to hang himself with what they predicted – correctly – would be another insipid, vacuous rehash of his previous positions. And that as soon as he had finished, they would pounce.
The carefully prepared strategy was as follows. First, agreement had to be sought from Catherine West, the maverick backbencher who had thrown a spanner into the works with her own leadership challenge, that she would stand down.
This was successfully secured with a series of threats, promises and entreaties from across the party. West’s announcement that she was halting her bid, instead calling for Starmer to set out a clear timetable for his departure, brought some momentary relief in Downing Street. But it didn’t last long.
Within minutes, Chris Curtis – head of the Labour Growth Group, and a close ally of Wes Streeting – broke cover to call for Starmer to set out a timeline for his departure. This was significant because it showed that supporters of the Health Secretary were prepared to publicly mobilise following months of perceived indecision.
As one ally of a senior leadership contender informed me: ‘The Parliamentary Labour Party are going to go out there and plough the road. Then ministers will begin to step down. And finally, the Cabinet will move.’
The campaign chief of another leadership contender told me: ‘Basically, what’s happening is the PLP have launched a no-confidence motion in Keir Starmer.
‘When they reach the magic number of 80 names (the figure required to launch a direct challenge if necessary), the Cabinet will tell him it’s time to go.’
My understanding is that the moment will probably come early today. At which point, Starmer will be handed a choice. Announce the timetable. Or face a rolling wave of Cabinet and ministerial resignations.
The campaign chief of another leadership contender told me: ‘Basically, what’s happening is the PLP have launched a no-confidence motion in Keir Starmer’
Some final die-hards – such as Housing Secretary Steve Reed – are urging the Prime Minister to fight to the death. But as one minister observed: ‘What’s he actually going to fight with? Look at his speech. He’s spent. He’s got nothing left.’
That view is now widespread across the Cabinet, and has been cemented by the Prime Minister’s staggeringly inept response to the crisis engulfing his premiership. The tone-deaf and myopic interviews. The pledge to go on for another ten years. The surreal decision to bring back Gordon Brown and Harriet Harman. And his Groundhog Day speech.
As one Cabinet minister told me: ‘Look at the so-called “fightback”. It’s been a shambles. Downing Street is a mess. There’s no one in there who knows what they’re doing. It’s a dead zone. They’ve basically given up.’
But another minister pointed the finger directly at Keir Starmer himself. ‘Yes, No 10 has collapsed as an effective operation.
‘But at the end of the day, that’s not the fault of the staff. The fault is with him. He’s angry. He feels betrayed. And he’s just lashing out at everyone and everything.’
Despite the skilful choreography of the plotters, divisions remain. Some of them want Starmer to set out a short timetable for his departure, which would give Wes Streeting his best chance of replacing him. Others want a longer timetable, giving Andy Burnham the time and space to secure a seat and make a triumphal return to Westminster.
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But for the moment, these divisions are being set aside. One thing is now uniting people across Labour’s various factions, and across the Cabinet table: An agreement that Keir Starmer has to now step down as Prime Minister.
There is a fervent hope he will see sense and heed the voices of those senior ministers who want him to step aside. Even those who have urged him to dig in previously now privately acknowledge his position is hopeless.
Yet some fear he will have to be dragged out of No 10 by his bootstraps. ‘He’s vain and stubborn and he doesn’t give a damn about the party or the country,’ one parliamentary critic observed. ‘It’s going to be bloody.’
One minister I spoke to believed salvation could come from an unexpected quarter.
‘I think Victoria [his wife] will step in now,’ they told me.
‘She’s the one person around him who isn’t thinking about their own job or career, but who has his own best interests at heart. I think she’ll realise his time’s up now and tell him to go with dignity.’
If she does, he should listen to her. Because today represents his final chance.
