Labour are facing a ‘bin fire’ in the Birmingham local elections after 14 calamitous years in charge of the city council, party sources fear.
The party believes it is in for a punishing day in Britain’s second city and could pick up as few as 20 seats, down from the 65 it won at the last election in 2022.
Since then, the Labour-led administration in the city has lurched from crisis to crisis, declaring effective bankruptcy in 2023 and overseeing a year-long bin strike which left mountains of rubbish in the streets.
Birmingham Northfield MP Larry Turner admitted defeat for Labour just before 3pm, telling ITV News: ‘It does look like we’re heading for a period in opposition.’
A few hours later, outgoing Labour leader John Cotton also accepted defeat and said he expected to lose his seat.
Bizarrely, he suggested to the Mail that the party’s problem had been one of messaging and not their catastrophic time in charge of the city.
He said: ‘I think we need to listen carefully to the message that the electorates have given us today and we need to think about how we start to tell in a more coherent and systematic way the story of the great things that this Labor government is doing.’
With 53 out of 101 seats declared by mid-afternoon today, the council looks set to be hopelessly divided, with no party yet to pull into a clear lead.
Reform UK had won 11 seats, the Conservative Party 12 seats and Labour 10 seats. Independent candidates had won six seats, including several Muslim sectarian candidates – the youngest of whom, Mansuur Ahmed, is just 19 years old.
Despite keeping pace with Reform and the Conservatives in the early results, the mood music among Labour figures at the count at Birmingham’s Utilita Arena was grim.
A Labour source said they feared speculation that it faced a ‘bin fire’ in its battle to retain a significant number of seats on Birmingham City Council would prove to be accurate.
The source tipped Reform UK, Green and independent candidates to prosper, adding: ‘Let’s just say I haven’t seen anyone looking even remotely happy.
‘The mood is worse than bad. It’s bleak.’
Labour, led by Cllr John Cotton in Birmingham, are expecting to suffer a ‘bin fire’ in the city council elections
Voters have turned against Labour over issues including the bin strike which left mountains of rubbish in the streets
Polls this week suggested Reform could emerge as the biggest party in the city, albeit short of a majority, while Labour could be facing a wipeout.
The Muslim sectarian independents, riding a wave of discontent in Muslim-majority wards about the conflict in Gaza, are expected to end the day as one of the biggest blocs in the council.
Speaking to the Mail at the count, Reform deputy leader Richard Tice said the party had ‘absolutely smashed it’ in the West Midlands, although he predicted it would be ‘very tight’ in Birmingham.
He said it was ‘guaranteed’ that Labour would suffer a humiliating day in Birmingham.
On the rise of the independents, Mr Tice said: ‘It shows the huge demographic shift in some of our cities, the bigger towns, with no democratic mandate from the British people.
‘I think it’s a great shame that crucially important local elections to run Birmingham better are in some wards being dominated by geopolitics in the Middle East.
‘It’s at best a shame and most people would say it’s not right.’
One of the most controversial independent candidates in the election has been Shahid Butt, a convicted terrorist jailed for plotting to blow up the British consulate in Yemen in 1999.
Although his ward of Sparkhill had yet to declare, he effectively conceded defeat – telling the Mail that he believed Labour would hold the seat.
‘From what I’ve seen (Labour) have kind of got it,’ he said.
‘The big protest vote from Labour has gone to the Greens. In my ward Labour have definitely benefited from a vote bank.
‘It’s blind loyalty.’
The full results are expected at about 6pm today.
