Reform UK has claimed it would unseat Kemi Badenoch at a general election after her Essex constituency voted for Nigel Farage’s party.
The insurgent right-wing challengers routed the Tories in the county today, sweeping to victory with 53 of the 77 seats.
Boffins at Reform HQ have now calculated that their surge in vote share would have seen Ms Badenoch unseated had today been a general election.
Dame Priti Patel, the shadow Foreign Secretary, and Sir James Cleverly, the shadow Housing and Local Government Secretary, would also have been defeated by the turquoise wave.
Numbers shared with the Mail revealed that in Ms Badenoch’s Saffron Walden constituency, Reform won 31% of the vote to the Conservative’s 29%.
But in Dame Priti’s seat of Witham, the lead was 10 points; and Mr Cleverly’s Braintree constituency saw Reform secure a 15 point lead.
Two other shadow cabinet ministers – Richard Holden and Alex Burghart – would also be unseated by Reform.
The Reform toppling of Essex Council, with 68% of the vote to the Tories’ 16.7%, brought the Tories crashing back down to earth after a celebratory atmosphere this morning.
Reform UK claims it would unseat three Tory big beasts in Essex – including Kemi Badenoch herself
Kemi Badenoch has pulled off unexpected victories in crucial councils in London
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Ms Badenoch woke up with a spring in her step after local election results in London suggested the party was beginning a long-awaited comeback after the 2024 general election.
While the Tories have lost dozens of council seats, crucial battlegrounds across London have proved surprisingly positive for the party.
They bucked the trend against recent polls, all of whom said the Tories were no-hopers in major councils like Wandsworth and Westminster.
But this morning residents in both affluent areas woke up to Conservative-run councils for the first time since 2022.
In Westminster, which includes major areas such as Buckingham Palace, the West End, and Belgravia, the Tories took 32 seats to Labour’s 22.
The party had run the council since its creation in 1965, before losing it in an anti-Boris wave four years ago.
Tory sources were particularly delighted to defeat two high-profile defectors who were standing for election in Abbey Wood – a prominent think tanker from the Henry Jackson society, Alan Mendoza, and former MP Damien Moore.
A source told the Mail: ‘bye bye failed Tories’.
South of the river in Wandsworth, once known as ‘Thatcher’s favourite council’, which had a notorious track record of keeping council tax very low, the Tories also succeeded in taking the crown back from Labour.
Having also lost the authority in 2022, this morning the Conservatives took 29 seats to Labour’s 28.
One independent councillor was also elected, with the Tories claiming that they have been given reassurances by Malcolm Grimston that he will not prevent them from running the area.
Mrs Badenoch also fended off a major effort from Reform UK in Bexley, south-east London.
The Tories held Bexley despite a recent MRP poll suggesting they were neck-and-neck with Mr Farage’s party.
But while there are still seats to declare, the Tories hold enough seats to control the target, and Reform have just a single-figure amount of councillors elected.
Similarly in Harlow, the Tories were defending six of the 11 seats up for election.
The Tory leader of the council, Dan Swords, said: ‘Reform said they would win all 11.’
‘The Conservatives won all 11 – with record turnout and majorities. Phenomenal.’
Mrs Badenoch spent the final day of campaigning in areas including Wandsworth and Croydon, with results suggesting this focus has born fruit
Victorious Conservative councillor Philip Stephenson-Oliver celebrates his victory at the Westminster count
Reform UK did put on a strong showing in outer London, despite failing to secure Bexley. The party won its first-ever London council in Havering this morning, having taken at least 28 of the council’s 55 available seats.
Mr Farage hailed it as a ‘historic shift in British politics’.
Meanwhile his colleague, Robert Jenrick, said this morning that both the Tories and Labour ‘have been completely buried’.
Speaking to the Daily Mail this morning, a source close to Mrs Badenoch said that while there are still ‘really difficult places yet to come in’, the results overnight prove that the Tories are ‘coming back’.
They explained: ‘There’s a lot of the really difficult places yet to come in, so we’re not counting our chickens.
‘But YouGov and More in Common didn’t have us taking Wandsworth and Westminster. They had us losing out in Bexley – where we’ve not only held on but increased some of our majorities.
‘There’s a real sign we’re coming back in places. These are tough elections for us. But we’re coming back from our historic lows.’
According to the Tories, they believe their overall vote share this year will be around 18 per cent, a rise of six points since the last set of local elections.
Asked if there’s a risk the Tories may become a Right-wing party only present in the capital, while losing the rest of their footings to Reform UK, the top source added: ‘We’re obviously fighting across the country.
‘The fact is these were – for the most part – the urban north and midlands, which has traditionally been more Labour dominated.
‘But in more rural parts of the North we have shown we can hang on.’
They reiterated denials that Mrs Badenoch would now be planning on a reshuffle of her shadow cabinet, insisting that the Tory leader is ‘very happy with her team’ and the U-turns they’ve been securing from the Government in Westminster.
