When Nottingham Forest began planning for life in the Premier League after a 23-year absence, they knew who they wanted to emulate.
In 2019, three years before they won promotion, the Forest hierarchy had watched another former European champion return to the top flight and slowly start to re-establish themselves there.
As he was studying Aston Villa back then, not even Evangelos Marinakis could have imagined that Forest might reach another European final quicker than Villa. In the Premier League hierarchy, there is still some distance between them – rather more than the 50 miles that separate Nottingham from Birmingham.
Whereas Villa have finished seventh, fourth and sixth under Unai Emery and are currently on course for a top-five finish, Forest have ended the season in the top 10 only once since they regained their Premier League spot.
Yet Forest arrive at Villa Park for Thursday’s Europa League semi-final second leg protecting a 1-0 lead from the first game at the City Ground last week, and they are also unbeaten in 10 matches. Villa have lost their last three, scoring only once.
Given their respective positions in the table – Villa are fifth and Forest 16th – Emery’s men should be heavy favourites. Yet Vitor Pereira’s team have found rhythm at just the right time and will believe they can thrive in an anxious atmosphere.
Nottingham Forest arrive at Villa Park for their Europa League semi-final second leg protecting a 1-0 lead
Chris Wood’s penalty was enough to seal a first-leg victory for Forest over Aston Villa last week, setting up a mouthwatering decider tonight
Marinakis was at Villa Park two years ago when Olympiacos, another of the clubs he owns, won 4-2 in the semi-final of the Conference League. They finished the job in Athens the following week and lifted the trophy by defeating Fiorentina in the final.
The omens are promising. Back then, Olympiacos coach Jose Luis Mendilibar was the club’s fourth of that season. Guess how many Forest have had this term?
Forest saw how Villa had spent heavily after winning promotion via the play-offs and stayed up on the final day of the Covid-affected 2019-20 season. There was then steady improvement under Dean Smith and after the failed Steven Gerrard experiment, Villa hired Emery and promptly took off.
This is Forest’s first season in Europe since 1995-96. For Villa, it is their third in succession.
Marinakis and Villa co-owner Nassef Sawiris have different styles. Rarely do we see Sawiris, let alone hear from him. Both billionaires, he and fellow owner Wes Edens do not court the limelight, whereas Marinakis is front and centre.
It is not four years since Forest returned to the Premier League yet still Marinakis is one of the most recognisable figures in English football. He has his own seat in the centre of the Peter Taylor Stand, in front of a giant television. He will greet players before and after games and fronts up during moments of success and failure. Everyone knows who is in charge.
Though they might go about the role differently, these men are united by a desire to smash what they see as a network of wealthy clubs trying to keep theirs on the outside. They have also done business together, notably when Matty Cash joined Villa from Forest in 2020, and two summers ago Villa showed tentative interest in Morgan Gibbs-White.
Both Villa and Forest could be in the Champions League next season – the perfect way to keep up the pressure on the established elite.
Morgan Gibbs-White is admired throughout the league but is the highest-paid player in Forest’s history
Villa and Forest could both be in the Champions League next season as Emery’s side should qualify through the Premier League
Sawiris has driven Villa forward by finding the right manager. Emery’s impact on Villa cannot be overstated, which is why he is among the highest-paid managers in Europe, earning about £12million a year. Could Vitor Pereira be the man to do the same for Marinakis?
Unlike Sawiris, who tempted Emery by allowing him to be a Sir Alex Ferguson-style old-school manager, Marinakis will generally keep his head coaches on a tight leash.
The Greek shipping magnate expects regular conversations with the man in the dugout to discuss performance and progress. Pereira is his fourth permanent manager this season after Nuno Espirito Santo, Ange Postecoglou and Sean Dyche – yet Marinakis has been smart enough to correct his mistakes.
He could see Forest were heading down under Dyche and was unafraid of the reaction when he dismissed him in February. Forest’s form since then shows he nailed it by appointing Pereira – the club’s fifth boss since Emery joined Villa in autumn 2022.
If they are to catch Villa in the Premier League, Marinakis will likely need to find his ‘Emery’. Nuno looked to be the man when he had Forest in the Champions League places for much of last season, only for the relationship to implode last summer.
Pereira has the temperament to do it, if not the track record: in his 24-year coaching career, the Portuguese has never stuck around anywhere for very long.
If Forest survive, it would seem foolish not to confirm Pereira for next season. It is worth remembering, though, that he was sacked by Wolves last November, despite an impressive rescue act in the previous campaign. Forest have always liked Fulham boss Marco Silva, who is out of contract at the end of the season and will have plenty of suitors if he opts to leave the Cottagers.
Villa are favourites, regardless of Emery’s pre-match kidology. They have the European pedigree and their record at Villa Park in Europe is formidable – as Paris Saint-Germain nearly learned to their cost in last season’s Champions League quarter-final. Yet regardless of the outcome, it feels as though Villa are reaching the end of a cycle – whereas Forest might just be at the start of an exciting new one.
Both clubs have to tread carefully not to break Premier League and UEFA spending rules and both may have to sell to ensure they do. Daily Mail Sport understands Villa will listen to offers for Morgan Rogers, who is their most valuable asset, while the high-earning Emi Martinez could also leave. And because Villa are in a tight spot with the regulations, replacing them would be difficult.
Not even Evangelos Marinakis could have imagined that Forest might reach another European final quicker than Villa
These two sides accounted for three European Cups in four seasons, with Forest claiming the trophy in 1979 (left) and 1980, and Villa winning it in 1982 (right)
Forest will surely lose one, perhaps two, of Gibbs-White, Murillo and Elliot Anderson. Manchester United like Murillo and Anderson, who is also a target for Manchester City. The difference is that some of the players Forest signed last summer are starting to show their worth. Next season, they might be ready to play regularly.
Gibbs-White is admired throughout the league but is the highest-paid player in Forest’s history and has an elevated status at the City Ground, just as Jack Grealish did in his final seasons at Aston Villa.
In the end Grealish left Villa for Manchester City and won the Treble two years later. When he departed, Villa were not the club they are today, and Forest have still some way to go to catch their Midlands rivals.
Win at the City Ground tonight, though, and Marinakis will believe his club can eventually eclipse them.
