Up to seven Cabinet ministers will unite to pressure Sir Keir Starmer into quitting if this week’s local election results are as dire as expected for Labour.
The high-ranking figures will try to persuade the beleaguered Prime Minister that it would be in the party’s best interests if he agreed a timetable for his departure from Downing Street, senior government sources have told The Mail on Sunday.
They will urge him to set out an ‘elegant’ path to stand down in time for the party’s annual conference in the autumn, rather than clinging desperately to power in the face of public opinion.
Such a move would pave the way for a leadership contest which is expected to include former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham as the main contenders.
Labour has been predicted to lose more than 1,500 seats in Thursday’s elections, including huge swathes of its former heartlands in the North and London.
As Sir Keir faces his political D-Day after months of mounting pressure:
- Reform’s Nigel Farage pledged to reduce Labour’s ‘Red Wall’ of support in the North and Midlands to ‘smouldering rubble’, writing in today’s The Mail on Sunday: ‘This will be Starmer’s real day of reckoning’.
- Allies of Mr Burnham said Ms Rayner had reneged on a deal to stand on a joint ticket as he is understood to have mapped out a path back into the Commons ‘within weeks’ by persuading a Labour MP to stand down and trigger a by-election.
- Mr Streeting’s leadership campaign was said to be ‘far advanced’, although allies insisted he would not challenge Sir Keir, but was prepared to run if the PM falls.
- Polling by Lord Ashcroft in today’s MoS found that more than half of voters think Sir Keir should resign if Labour loses a large number of seats on Thursday, while only 25 per cent think he will remain PM until the next election.
- Allies of the PM branded it ‘madness to hold a leadership election while there is a war in the Middle East and a cost of living crisis’.
In a BBC interview yesterday, Sir Keir made clear he intended to remain in No 10 until the next general election – declaring he was elected for ‘a five-year term that I won with a landslide victory, and I’ll be judged at the end of that period, at the next election’.
Exclusive polling for the Mail On Sunday shows only 25 per cent of voters believe Sir Keir Starmer will stay PM until the next election in 2029
High-ranking Labour figures will try to persuade the PM that it would be in the party’s best interests if he agreed a timetable for his departure if the local elections are a disaster
Health Secretary Wes Streeting has the support of enough Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge against Starmer
A senior Labour MP also insisted that, if challenged, Sir Keir would beat Ms Rayner, Mr Streeting ‘and even Andy Burnham’ if it went to a poll of all Labour members.
However, another MP said the PM was ‘really quite deluded’ if he believed he could cling on in the wake of this week’s expected local election bloodbath and the Peter Mandelson affair.
This newspaper has been told that under the plan being prepared, Sir Keir would be forced to agree that he should make way for a new leader after a suitable period described by one Labour source as ‘a calm, elegant and considered process’.
Another party insider said: ‘The view is there is no way for this to end now unless Keir sets out a clear timetable.
‘Ideally, he will do it himself. But if he doesn’t, members of the Cabinet will go to him after the results are in and tell him he has to announce a clear schedule for his departure.’
A ministerial source said: ‘It’s about finding a way out that lets Keir go with some dignity. There won’t be any public calls initially.
‘But a significant number of Cabinet ministers have agreed that if the results are what we expect, he has to set out the timetable.’
Mr Burnham’s previous attempt to return to the Commons earlier this year was thwarted when Labour’s ruling NEC was able to block his candidature for the Gorton and Denton by-election on party rules which state that serving mayors must get permission to quit and stand for Parliament.
A senior Labour MP has insisted that, if challenged, Sir Keir would beat Ms Rayner in a leadership contest
Manchester mayor Andy Burnham’s allies have said Ms Rayner has backed out of a deal to support him
However, if the NEC tried to block him a second time, say his allies, he will resign as mayor to remove that veto and nominate Bev Craig, leader of Manchester City Council, as his replacement.
Mr Burnham’s allies say Ms Rayner has backed out of a deal to support him, which had been agreed at the start of the year as part of a ‘non-aggression pact’ between her, Mr Burnham and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband.
A Labour MP said: ‘If we lose more than 1,500 councillors, lose control of Wales and come third in Scotland, there will be a challenge.
‘That will be triggered by Cabinet ministers saying publicly that things have to change. Starmer may respond by trying a Cabinet reshuffle, but that won’t work.
‘The 2024 intake of MPs, who are Starmer’s main support, will then call for change, at which point he’s finished.’
The MP added: ‘It’s chaos at the moment. Endless briefings, half-baked leadership plots, and people jockeying for position while the country rots. It is clear that the PM has burned any political capital. It has been called by some a ‘game of chess’, but it’s not checkmate – it’s f***, mate.’
