Donald Trump’s bluff has been called. His declaration last Sunday that the US Navy would block ‘any and all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz’ has been shown to be a boast as absurd as the AI images he posted of himself as Jesus.
The supposed ‘blockade’, which began at 10am on Monday, was broken in barely 24 hours. This has plunged Trump further into crisis, inflicting yet another humiliation on him in the eyes of the world.
It is now clear that the 16 US warships sent to enforce the blockade are not going to be enough.
The fact that Iran’s own shutdown has remained solid for weeks is even more galling.
So what now? Either Trump backs off and allows shipping to pass through the Strait unimpeded – a craven humiliation – or he orders his military to take the momentous step of boarding and seizing ships. Both, to me, seem conceivable.
On Tuesday, after China’s foreign ministry denounced the American blockade as ‘dangerous and irresponsible’, an oil tanker owned by a Shanghai shipping firm approached the Strait, held back at first, and then sailed through.
The US did not prevent it – and could not, without risking World War III. The Rich Starry, a 600ft vessel carrying about 250,000 barrels of methanol loaded at the United Arab Emirates port of Hamriyah, was not sailing under a Chinese flag but it has a Chinese crew – and that fact was loudly broadcast before the ship made its approach.
Within a couple of hours, three more ships had ignored the blockade. It’s possible, though I suspect unlikely, that the Americans were not yet in position to enforce the blockade despite Trump’s bluster.
Another theory, somewhat more credible, is that the ships had turned off their onboard Automatic Identification Systems [AIS] transponders – though that would have made no difference to the US Navy, with its intelligence capabilities.
So, no: by far the most likely scenario is that the Americans deliberately chose not to enforce the blockade.
And in one sense, we should be thankful for that. To seize control of a ship under a national flag is scarcely different from invading an island or a beach – it’s a little piece of a sovereign country. Boarding a Chinese tanker by force would more or less amount to an open declaration of war.
No doubt Trump will make excuses and perhaps claim that one of his famous ‘deals’ has been struck.
He will be fooling no one, least of all the Iranians.
Despite this setback, the Strait blockade is theoretically feasible. Naval forces can seize control of a merchant ship quite easily: it doesn’t require Special Forces, just a helicopter or two and a unit of well-trained, heavily armed troops.
But the blockade, should Trump continue to pursue it, risks creating far more problems than it would solve.
First, Iran appears to have anticipated it by putting stockpiles of oil on tankers at sea. The Wall Street Journal estimates that 160million barrels are already on the open ocean, enough to supply China for three months. This could enable Tehran to ride out the initial effects of a moratorium on exports.
Second, Iran has vowed to renew its attacks on Gulf states including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and others in retaliation. This will ramp up pressure on the global economy, when the price of oil is already hovering around $100 per barrel, compared to about $72 before the war.
As for Britain, we cannot control an erratic and dangerous US President. But we can take command of our own actions. The Royal Navy should offer to help our Gulf allies, especially Oman, with minesweeping – we have some of the best anti-mine technicians in the world.
And we should put at least one warship into the region, in readiness to protect our bases and all British nationals in the region.
This is not our war. But we need to be prepared to face whatever happens next.
Admiral Lord West of Spithead is former First Sea Lord
