Nate Silver has unveiled his latest prediction ahead of the presidential election – suggesting that the outcome will practically be a coin flip.
The polling guru gave former President Donald Trump a 51.5 percent chance to win the electoral college, while Vice President Kamala Harris walked away with a 48.1 percent chance of victory.
Silver, who left Five Thirty Eight in 2023 and took his forecasting model with him, made his latest prognostication on his Substack blog called the Silver Bulletin.
He has Trump as the slight favorite, despite Harris being ahead in his aggregation of public polls by just under a percentage point.
‘NYT swing state polls good for Harris but not great. Morning Consult swing state polls good for Trump but not great,’ Silver wrote on X Sunday morning. ‘It’s a pure toss-up.’
Silver was first referring to the final poll done by The New York Times that showed Trump running behind Harris in four critical swing states: Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin.
That poll also showed Trump with a lead in Arizona, while the two were tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The Morning Consult poll results, as Silver mentioned, were slightly kinder to Trump.
He led Harris by two points in Georgia and in North Carolina. Morning Consult also found that three states were in a dead heat: Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Silver also said the bombshell poll from famed pollster Ann Selzer showing Harris beating Trump by three points in Iowa ‘probably won’t matter’ in determining the electoral college winner.
But Silver wasn’t too quick to dismiss the results as totally meaningless, saying Harris supporters were right to have a strong reaction.
‘I think Harris voters are reasonable in rejoicing over the Selzer survey,’ Silver wrote.
‘At the very least, it clinches the case that there will be plenty of numbers from high-quality pollsters in the final batch of polls that support a Harris victory – along with roughly as many that imply a Trump win,’ he continued.
‘If Trump had “momentum” in October, it has now petered out in November. And we will very likely go into Tuesday night with the race being truly a toss-up, not leaning or tilting toward Trump.’
Selzer has built a reputation as ‘Iowa’s Polling Queen’ and the ‘best pollster in politics’ over decades of conducting the Des Moines Register polls.
The ex-president tore into the survey calling Selzer a ‘Trump hater’ and insisting that Iowa’s farmers ‘love’ him.
‘All polls, except for one heavily skewed toward the Democrats by a Trump hater who called it totally wrong the last time, have me up, BY A LOT,’ he scathed on Truth Social.
Selzer took the time to explain herself on cable television this weekend.
‘We don’t have as much data as we might like about why this is happening,’ she told MSNBC’s ‘The Weekend.’
‘But our consensus from the reporters who work this beat is that the abortion ban went into effect this past summer… I think it has gotten people interested in voting.’
Iowa hasn’t voted for a Democrat in the presidential election since Barack Obama in 2012 and was written off by the Harris campaign as an easy GOP win.
Like the polls, the betting markets have also tightened in recent days, largely thanks to that favorable Iowa poll for Harris.
As recently as Halloween, around 60 percent of bettors on platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket and Predictit, were convinced that Trump was going to win.
Trump’s odds now are no better than 54 percent across all three websites. In fact, Harris is the 56 to 48 percent favorite on Predictit.
The final DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners national poll before Election Day showed Trump overtaking Harris by three percentage points nationally.
The poll of 1,000 likely voters, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent, shows that Trump is trending up, with the support of 49 percent to Harris’ 46 percent.
