Labour plunged deeper towards civil war tonight as Andy Burnham announced his bid to become an MP – his first step in challenging Keir Starmer’s fragile leadership.
In an 11th-hour move that sent shockwaves through Westminster, the self-styled ‘King of the North’ declared that he wants to fight an imminent by-election for Labour, backing the Prime Minister into a strategic corner.
If Sir Keir’s allies allow Mr Burnham to stand in the Gorton and Denton seat being vacated by disgraced former minister Andrew Gwynne, they risk plunging the party in to a bitter leadership contest. If they block him, it will further inflame rifts within the ranks and risk making the PM appear cowardly.
As Manchester Mayor, Mr Burnham needed to seek permission from Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) to stand in a by-election – a move he made just moments before the deadline of 5pm yesterday.
The Mail on Sunday understands he made his approach after securing the backing of more than 100 Labour MPs, which would be enough to trigger a formal challenge to the PM if he returns to Parliament.
In a day of extraordinary political drama:
- Angela Rayner was tipped to make a shock return to frontline politics after she was promised her old job of Deputy Prime Minister – plus another Cabinet post – should Mr Burnham get into No 10;
- Nigel Farage vowed that Reform will derail Mr Burnham’s Westminster comeback by winning the by-election, although an expert analysis for the MoS predicts it will fall to the Green Party;
- Mr Burnham will trigger a mayoral election in Greater Manchester that will cost taxpayers almost £5million if he becomes an MP.
It is now up to the ten members of the ‘officers committee’ of the NEC to decide if Mr Burnham can fight the by-election. The panel – expected to meet tomorrow – is packed with Sir Keir’s supporters, but denying Mr Burnham a chance to stand would risk making the PM look weak.
Mr Burnham’s backers fear that Sir Keir’s absence on a trip to China this week could embolden the NEC, which is chaired by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, a Starmer loyalist, to block his rival. Speculation was tonight mounting that the NEC could impose either an all-woman or an exclusively black, Asian and minority ethnic shortlist to thwart Mr Burnham’s ambitions to contest the seat.
But the mayor’s supporters warned that any attempt to torpedo his return to Westminster would be ‘an affront to democracy’ and accused Sir Keir of ‘running scared’ from a leadership challenge.
Mr Burnham posted his letter to the NEC on social media site X at precisely 5pm today. In it, he said it was a ‘difficult decision’ but that he had given ‘careful thought’ to the best interests of the Labour Party and of Manchester.
And despite the divisive effects his manoeuvres are likely to have, he said he wanted to run a ‘hopeful and unifying campaign’.
Mr Burnham insisted: ‘I would be there to support the work of the Government, not undermine it, and I have passed on this assurance to the Prime Minister.’
Mr Burnham’s potential route to the leadership was opened when Mr Gwynne quit as MP last week.
It came a year after The Mail on Sunday revealed the MP was part of a WhatsApp group called Trigger Me Timbers that shared vile racist, sexist and anti-Semitic jokes. No 10 sacked him as Health Minister and he was suspended from the Labour Party.
Announcing he was leaving the Commons, Mr Gwynne cited long-term health problems ‘exacerbated by the impact of last year’s events’.
If he was elected as an MP, Mr Burnham would be in a position to mount a leadership challenge against Sir Keir –likely to be triggered if Labour suffers the catastrophic losses it is expected to sustain at the local elections in May.
The MoS revealed in December that Angela Rayner had ‘done a deal’ to be Mr Burnham’s running mate.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting is regarded by Mr Burnham’s supporters as his only credible opponent in the event of a leadership contest.
The NEC is facing pressure to allow Mr Burnham to stand. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband told the Fabian Society conference today: I very much hope that the local party will have the option of picking Andy as a candidate.’
Last week, Labour MPs told the MoS Mr Miliband will support Mr Burnham’s expected challenge on the understanding he will become Chancellor if Mr Burnham wins. London Mayor Sadiq Khan also backed Mr Burnham’s bid to stand as an MP, saying: ‘I’m a firm believer in the best team having all the talent playing for them.’
And Labour’s deputy leader Lucy Powell – a long-term thorn in Sir Keir’s side – said the decision on whether Mr Burnham should be the candidate ought to be ‘up to Andy and the local members’.
Writing on X, Chris Webb, MP for Blackpool South, said: ‘Our members are the lifeblood of our party and the NEC exists to serve them, not factions. Blocking Andy Burnham from Gorton & Denton will have serious lasting consequences. When you’re 2-0 down at half time, you bring on the super sub to help the team win.’
Kate Osborne, MP for Jarrow and Gateshead East, added: ‘We do not need factionalism before party – excluding Andy Burnham if he wants to stand would be a mistake & very weak.’
Others, however, appeared determined to block Mr Burnham. One member of the NEC reportedly told the BBC Newsnight’s Matt Chorley: ‘He will not be the candidate if I’ve got anything to ****ing do with it. Not a chance.’
Labour MP Graham Stringer accused Mr Burnham of ‘taking a big risk with his own career and the future of Labour in Manchester’.
Applications to stand as Labour’s by-election candidate close at midnight tonight.
In a rapid timetable, which critics believe is deliberately short to stymie Mr Burnham, a longlist of candidates, probably six, will be drawn up on Monday by a selection panel, shortlisting interviews will be held on Tuesday and hustings and selection will take place next Saturday.
Labour insiders estimate it could cost the party £1.5 million to organise and fight both a Westminster by-election and a ballot for the Greater Manchester mayoralty.
Even if the NEC allows him to fight the by-election, Mr Burnham will face a strong challenge from Reform and the Green Party.
An exclusive analysis commissioned by the MoS, which takes into account latest polling data, predicted that the seat could fall to the Greens.
But the study also shows that Reform would win if the Tories agreed not to stand – a forecast that will fuel calls for the parties on the Right to unite.
Analysis shows the two parties would gain 81 more seats between them if they entered a pact against the Left at the next general election.
